Terese Cristiansson’s analysis after the Hezbollah leader’s speech

For the second time in a very short time, Hassan Nasrallah said there will be retaliation for Tuesday’s deadly attack on the Hamas stop Saleh al-Arouri in the middle of Beirut. The first speech, which came a day after the attack, he ended with the promise of revenge. It was quite theatrical and without any kind of development.

During Friday’s speech, which was mainly a long tribute to fallen supporters, he was a little more descriptive and said that the attack was a “red line” and that it could not go unnoticed. Something will come in response, was the grim tone. Israel probably did not expect anything else.

Focused on the US

But there was something else Nasrallah focused more on during his long speech: the United States.
The Hezbollah leader conspired about how they are behind ISIS and that they were the ones who orchestrated the major attack in Tehran on Thursday under the name of the Islamic State. It is difficult to get the logic around that idea, but logic is not always the strongest branch of Nasrallah’s followers. On the other hand, it is their anger against the USA that is as easy to ignite as dry moss in the Advent candlestick.

Most troublesome was his focus on US action in Iraq. This week, the US struck a base of Iran-backed militias, killing at least one Shia Muslim figure. According to the US, it was a defense because the group has carried out over a hundred attacks against US bases in Iraq and Syria since the war between Israel and Hamas started after the terrorist attack on October 7. But it is extremely rare for the US to strike in the Iraqi capital. This time, even the Iraqi government has not been lying low, openly criticizing the US for its actions in another country’s independent territory. It is not certain that the US can get away with such things anymore.

“Now the friends bond closer”

Nasrallah chose to speak at length about how it is the Middle East’s turn to shake off the US for good. He will get some support for that, but he did not mention the countries in the Middle East that have continued contact with the US, for example Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is understandable that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has now embarked on a new tour in the Middle East which will last until January 11. Now friends are becoming closer and polarization continues to deepen throughout the MENA region.

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