For a State, a downgrading of the rating is considered as a political disavowal. After the lowering of its rating by Fitch in April, passed from “AA” to “AA-“, France goes again to the table of rating agencies this Friday, June 2 with the decision of S & P Global.
The long-awaited verdict from Standard & Poor’s, one of the three main American rating agencies in the world along with Moody’s and Fitch, is expected in the evening, around 11 p.m. The S&P Global agency could in turn sanction the government for its management of public finances and the recent social crisis.
The rating agency currently classifies France as “AA” on a scale of about twenty notches ranging from “AAA”, the best possible rating, to “D”, synonymous with payment default. It could lower the rating by at least one rank, to “AA-“, but also maintain its assessment unchanged. It can also play on its “perspective”, which gives the probable evolution in the medium term. This is currently “negative”, which means that a lowering is possible.
Eight countries on the European continent rated “AAA”
At European level, France is not the best student, but is rather in the top ranks of the ratings assigned by the S&P Global agency. As Franceinfo noted, at this stage, 11 countries in the world have the best rating (“AAA”), eight of which are on the European continent. These are Germany, Denmark, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland.
| European continent countries | Rating from S&P Global |
|---|---|
| Germany | AAA |
| Denmark | AAA |
| Liechtenstein | AAA |
| Luxemburg | AAA |
| Norway | AAA |
| Sweden | AAA |
| Swiss | AAA |
| Austria | AA+ |
| Finland | AA+ |
| Belgium | AA |
| France | AA |
| Ireland | AA |
| United Kingdom | AA |
| Estonia | YY- |
| Czech Republic | YY- |
| Slovenia | YY- |
| Latvia | A+ |
| Lithuania | A+ |
| Slovakia | A+ |
| Spain | AT |
| Iceland | AT |
| Malta | AT- |
| Poland | AT- |
| Andorra | BBB+ |
| Croatia | BBB+ |
| Portugal | BBB+ |
| Bulgaria | BBB |
| Cyprus | BBB |
| Hungary | BBB |
| Italy | BBB |
| Romania | BBB- |
| Greece | BB+ |
| Serbia | BB+ |
| North Macedonia | BB- |
| Albania | B+ |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | B |
| Montenegro | B |
| Ukraine | CCC |
| Belarus | SD |
Austria is rated “AA+”, like Finland. With its “AA” rating, France is ranked on the same level as Belgium, Ireland and the United Kingdom. Estonia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are classified as “AA-“. Three countries have an “A+”: Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia. With an “A”, Spain has the same grade as Iceland. Malta and Poland are rated “A-” by S&P Global.
In the ranks of the lower-rated students, we find Andorra, classified “BBB +”, like Croatia and Portugal. Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary and Italy are classified as “BBB”, Romania in “BBB-“. Greece is in “BB+”, like Serbia, while North Macedonia is in “BB-“. Albania is rated “B+” while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro are “B”.
Badly rated Belarus and Ukraine
Some countries located in the east of the European continent are facing even greater financial difficulties. This is the case of Ukraine, classified as “CCC”. This rating has a “negative outlook”. S & P expected, in fact, from May 2022 “that the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict will continue”.
Belarus was downgraded in August 2022 by S&P Global from “CC” (a near-certain default) to “SD” (“selective default”, or “selective default”) for choosing to repay its sovereign debt in Belarusian rubles and no longer in dollars.
France has the highest debt of countries in the “AA” category. Its public debt is close to 3000 billion euros. The public deficits expected for this year and next year are also much higher than countries benefiting from a similar rating, noted Fitch.