In a surprise announcement on the evening of Sunday, May 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed his emblematic Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, in office since 2012. Dismissed but also promoted, since he became Secretary of the Security Council. It is Andréï Beloussov, an economist by training, who replaces him at the head of the Ministry of Defense. With Arnaud Dubien, Director of the Franco-Russian Observatory and associated researcher at Iris, RFI analyzes this unexpected reshuffle.
This reshuffle comes two and a half years after Russia launched war against Ukraine, a few days after a Russian offensive in the Kharkiv regionUkraine’s second city, located in the northeast of the country.
RFI: How do you analyze the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu by Vladimir Putin?
Arnaud Dubien: We must remember who Sergei Shoigu is. He has led the Ministry of Defense for a dozen years. But above all, he is the longest-serving minister in Russia. I remind you that he was already in the governments of former President Boris Yeltsin in 1992. He also gained great popularity in Russia in the 1990s, when he was head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. emergency, Civil Security. Historically, he was not part of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, but he entered it. We particularly remember these vacation photos with Vladimir Putin, in Siberia, in the small republic of Tuva, where Shoigu is from.
So why change Sergei Shoigu today? This is undoubtedly a matter of rationalizing public spending or rather of aiming for greater efficiency. This while defense budgets are increasing and there is very strong demand for military industrial production. Choïgu was, moreover, weakened by the resignation for corruption of his deputy Timur Ivanova few weeks ago.
But it’s a surprise. It was generally believed in Moscow that Vladimir Putin would not change horses in the middle of the ford. He did it, but he is not leaving the system since, as you said, he will be promoted to head the National Security Council, an important body in recent years in the country.
As you say, we did not expect Vladimir Putin to change horses in the middle of the ford. Why do you think you chose this moment?
From Vladimir Putin’s point of view, this is ideal timing and it is indeed in line with what Vladimir Putin is doing. Generally, we don’t change people when they are in difficulty or under the pressure of circumstances. It is easier from the Kremlin’s point of view to dismiss Sergei Shoigu today against the backdrop of military success in Ukraine, than in the fall of 2022, when the Russian army was retreating towards Kharkiv or Kherson.
What could also have played a role against Sergei Shoigu, it’s the Evgeny Prigozhin affair. Even if the case Evgeni Prigozhin was settled quickly and in an expeditious manner, Sergei Shoigu is exfiltrated a little later. But we can think that it worked against him.
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To replace Sergei Shoigu, Vladimir Putin chose to appoint Andreï Beloussov, an economist with no military experience, while Russia is waging a war in Ukraine. What does Vladimir Putin really expect from this new Minister of Defense? The word innovation has been spoken.
It must be remembered that Sergei Shoigu is not a soldier, even if he parades, including last May 9, on Red Square in uniform – which he was sometimes criticized for. This is not the first time that Vladimir Putin has appointed a civilian to head the Ministry of Chances. In 2007, the appointment of Anatoly Serdyukov was a great cultural shock and the experience ended rather badly, but he launched very powerful reforms against an apparatus that was still very Sovietized.
Concerning Andreï Beloussov, first of all, it must be remembered that he is an old acquaintance of Vladimir Putin. They have known each other for at least fifteen years. Andrei Belousov wrote part of the Russian president’s economic programs. He followed him to the White House, which is the seat of the Russian government, in 2008, when Vladimir Putin became prime minister. He has a reputation as an interventionist economist. He is a very honest person. Someone also very religious, who should get along well with industrialists and the military. He is someone who actually, compared to the profiles of Shoigu and Ivanov, appears a bit like a neo-Soviet ascetic.
But can he gain the trust of the military hierarchy of the General Staff? You were referring to the appointment in 2007 of Anatoly Serdyukov, who had spent part of his career notably in the furniture sales sector. He was appointed to modernize the Russian army and fight against corruption, but when he left in 2012 and was replaced by Sergei Shoigu, we saw the deep distrust of the military hierarchy towards him. Can Belousov gain the trust of the military hierarchy?
I think so, although I’m not sure that’s what the Kremlin is asking of him. In fact, we will witness a division of labor between the minister who will be responsible for stewardship – in a very specific context where it is a question of producing, to produce and still produce – and the general staff, at the head of which General Gherassimov – reappointed for a while in any case – is responsible for military operations.
So there will no longer be any confusion of genres. The minister will operate defense industries to provide an army, the plans of which will be entrusted to the General Staff, therefore to the military. They already were, but will be even more clearly.
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Can we expect more sackings? We are indeed thinking of Valeri Gherassimov whom you mentioned just now, who leads military operations in Ukraine.
General Gherassimov should be taken away. This is what Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, said on Sunday, May 12. What we should have, however, are the deputies of the new Minister of Defense. It is likely that some of them, known to be close to Shoigu, will be replaced. It is possible that certain new figures perhaps intended to replace either Belousov or Gherassimov at the end of the war in Ukraine will emerge.
So we can think that Beloussov will be a transitional minister after Sergei Shoigu’s 12-year reign at the head of the Ministry of Defense?
Twelve years old, no one believes it, firstly because Belousov is 65 years old. Then, there is a political deadline in Russia in 2026, the legislative elections. They may give rise to further adjustments in two and a half years. In any case, it is the bet that is made here that “ the special operation » is completed, the work of long-term reconstruction of the Russian security apparatus begins.
So it’s not an appointment for a few weeks, to make things clear, but it’s not an appointment for 10 or 15 years, that’s for sure.
Sergei Shoigu is fired from the Ministry of Defense, but is appointed to the Russian Security Council. A dismissal therefore against the backdrop of promotion. If we gain perspective by analyzing this reshuffle, is it possible to draw lessons regarding the influences of the different clans present in the Kremlin?
Yes of course. So, we should go into details. Nicolas Patrushev is no longer secretary of the National Security Council. An important position in any case, which became important thanks to him, whereas it was previously rather a closet for ex-senior civil servants. We will also see if Choïgu stays on this trajectory or if it becomes a closet again.
Concerning Nicolas Patrushev, it is not at all certain that he will leave the system. Dmitri Peskov, on Sunday evening, announced that his new functions would be revealed within a few days. It is rumored that he could take the head of the presidential administration, if necessary. That would actually be a promotion. And then there is one of his sons, Dimitri, who was Minister of Agriculture, who becomes Deputy Prime Minister.
Agriculture is an extremely important sector. It is, I would say, the “ success story » of the last 10 years in Russia, with a sector which was still under the influence of the Stalinist tragedy of collectivization with many imports, and which today is an exporter and net contributor to the Russian budget, with very powerful industries . It’s a promotion for him. He enters the possible ball of successors, probably in 2030.
A reshuffle in continuity?
I don’t see a big break. In any case, there is no change of political course. The central objective, to use a Soviet slogan, is “ everything for victory » and Russian leaders, rightly or wrongly, believe in it more and more, and I would say that the game of patience will take place either in 2026 or after.
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