When the terror threat level was raised from a three to a four this summer, Säpo referred to the Koran burnings and the extensive LVU campaign.
Since then, the acts of terrorism by Hamas and Israel’s subsequent war in Gaza have been added.
– The unrest in the Middle East affects and further polarizes the entire outside world and also in Sweden. It contributes to a higher degree of uncertainty and a higher degree of activity in the violent extremist environments, says Fredrik Hallström, acting chief of operations at the Security Police (Säpo).
– The outside world is quite messy, which means that the situation is a little different from what we saw in August.
Despite the situation, it is not currently considered appropriate to raise the terror threat level to a five, according to Säpo. Hallström’s explanation is that the threat levels are not static but can move both up and down within the framework of a four.
Calls for assassination
Hallström states that the Israel-Palestine conflict creates extremely strong contradictions.
– It is very special. You’re either for or against, and if you don’t think something, that’s not good either.
Hamas’s large-scale terrorist attack on October 7 gave the violent Islamist environment globally a feeling of air under its wings, he says.
– A feeling that you “succeeded”. That in itself could inspire attacks.
Are there people in Sweden who react and call for violence?
– Yes, the violent Islamist environment has reacted. It is a changed tone and an issue that is very concerning.
Säpo notes everything from support activities to thoughts and calls to travel to contribute.
– They paint the enemy as evil and call for attacks. The fact that the Western world has not infrequently rallied behind Israel is in itself threatening.
Multiple murders
Europe has already seen several suspected Islamist terrorist attacks in late autumn. In addition to the two Swedish football supporters who were shot dead in Brussels in October, a teacher has been stabbed to death in Arres, France, and most recently a German tourist in Paris.
But the increased polarization also means that right-wing extremists are gathering, according to Säpo.
– There is increased activity also in violent right-wing extremist environments. That and the increased amount of propaganda that hits many more people means an increased risk of attacks, says Hallström.
Threats to Christmas shopping?
At the same time, Christmas shopping is in full swing, but according to Säpo, it is difficult to assess what the threat to shops, shopping centers and Christmas markets looks like.
– The Christian holidays and Christmas shopping appear as part of several other potential target choices or approaches in the propaganda, and it has looked like that for a long time, says Hallström.
Terrorists have previously struck during Christmas shopping, also in Sweden. In December 2010, Taimour Abdulwahab blew himself to death in Stockholm. He is believed to have failed several times to trigger his charges in the middle of the crowd on Drottninggatan, instead only dying himself.
– It is important to remind ourselves that we have a changed threat level, it is easy to forget sometimes. We as a security service cannot give recommendations to everyone how to behave, but here organizers and organizations must take their responsibility and have a dialogue with the police authority, says Hallström.