Russian authorities are preparing to destabilize Moldova in the long term.
This is because the country is getting closer to the West and the EU, according to a report from the ISW think tank.
But lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi does not share that view.
– I don’t see that Russia has that opportunity, he says to TV4 Nyheterna.
The head of the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Alexei Polishchuk, accuses Moldova of destroying its ties with the CIS countries, which comprise most of the Soviet states. He says so in an interview with Russian TASS, writes the think tank ISW in a status report.
He also claims that there are rumors that Moldova plans to leave the CIS at the end of 2024. Something that the Kremlin interprets as a rapprochement with the West and the EU.
Polishchuk and other Russian voices also try to exaggerate the state of conflict in the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria, and the government’s treatment of its Russian-backed residents.
Can justify their aggressions
The Russian behavior is reminiscent of the rhetoric used by the country in the war against Ukraine, ISW writes in its report.
According to the think tank, the escalated rhetoric may mean an increased risk of future Russian aggression against Moldova.
The Kremlin may try to justify its aggressions against Moldova by claiming that residents of Transnistria are in danger because of Moldova’s treatment of them, according to ISW.
ISW has also previously drawn attention to suggestions that the Kremlin can use rhetoric that appeals to a wider audience beyond the “Russian world”.
Paasikivi: “Unrealistic”
According to lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi, Russia’s possibilities for military action against Moldova are non-existent. The Kremlin has probably had great influence over the Moldovan opposition but little opportunity to take armed action, he believes.
– That is a recurring and rather alarmist view of Russia’s possibilities of doing something military against Moldova, he tells TV4 Nyheterna about ISW’s status report.
In order for Russia to be able to imagine a renewed Russian aggression against additional countries, it is required that the country equips the military substantially, he adds.
– I would be very surprised if it turns out that I am wrong.
Preparedness against a possible coup attempt like the one against Montenegro in 2016 is quite high in Moldova, says Paasikivi.
– Trying to do something militarily was an ambition that failed in 2016.
Now they simply work with other means such as disinformation campaigns, infiltration and financing of the opposition to try to influence elections in Moldova.