Vladimir Putin is convinced, each month that passes works in his favor. While the Ukrainian counter-offensive comes up against the formidable Russian defenses, American support for kyiv is hampered in Congress. On the other hand, Russia has a larger pool of men and its war industry is gaining strength.
But Moscow is winning another strategic battle, that of narrative. First, regarding the nature of the conflict. According to a recent study by the European Council on Foreign Relations, many respondents outside the United States and Europe seem to perceive it primarily as a proxy war between Washington and Moscow.
The West often seen as the main obstacle to peace
Among these populations, the prevailing view is that the war must end sooner rather than later, even if it means that Ukraine must give up land. The West – and not Moscow – is considered the greatest obstacle to peace – an idea which, although in the minority, is also making progress in Europe. Above all, a conviction is taking hold in many so-called “Southern” countries, after almost two years of fighting: Russia will win.
This is all the more worrying as this war serves as a test for the credibility of the EU. Thus, 41% of non-European citizens believe according to the study that the EU could “collapse” within twenty years, many seeming to link its fate to the outcome of the conflict. Europe, which could find itself at the forefront of military aid to Ukraine if the United States changes course, is perceived as weak. More than ever, it must assert itself as an autonomous strategic power.