The core question may be how far Ukraine’s western integration can progress, says Mika Aaltola, director of the Foreign Policy Institute.
Ukrainian war expert Emil Kastehelmi and director of the Foreign Policy Institute Mika Aaltola discussed the prospects of the war in Ukraine and the start of a possible counterattack in the morning of .
Ukraine has advanced in the Bahmut region of Donetsk, but mostly on the outskirts of the city. It’s not about a siege. Instead, Russia has advanced inside the city, and Ukraine controls perhaps less than ten percent of the city itself, says Emil Kastehelmi.
According to Kastehelmi, Ukraine has been successful in its attacks on the outskirts of the city and gained positions from there.
– You could say that the roles have changed, Kastehelmi sums up. If the city falls, Ukraine now has a better chance of continuing to defend itself.
Aaltola: In the battles of Bahmut, Russia has exhausted itself, which has been profitable for Ukraine
Mika Aaltola says that Russia has worn itself out in the battles of Bahmut.
– Ukraine is satisfied when Russia wastes its resources, says Aaltola. At the same time, Ukraine’s counterattack hangs in the air, and Russia is wondering where and when Ukraine will strike.
– It itself has an impact on the political side, Aaltola continues and reminds that battles can be won or lost, but in politics things do not necessarily go in synchrony. Putting the Crimean peninsula at stake in people’s minds is already quite an achievement.
– It has not even been necessary to launch a counterattack when it starts to feel like something inescapable is in the air, the researcher estimates.
Russia is prepared for big actions
– Russia is prepared for quite significant actions by the Ukrainians. It can be seen in fortifications and the use of troops. The strongest preparation is in the direction of Melitopol, says Kastehelmi.
According to him, the Russian fortress project is extensive and massive. There are, among other things, armored barriers and concrete pyramids, describes Kastehelmi.
Breaking through the fortresses is very difficult, and it depends, among other things, on the amount of Ukrainian artillery. The number of uncertain variables is large, experts say.
The counter-offensive is not yet underway, but what is certain is that Ukraine will benefit from Western aid, which is coming more and more, and Western integration. On the other hand, losses must be compensated all the time.
According to Kastehelmi, the counterattack can start in summer or autumn; that’s how the battlefield is now being modified.