It is unclear whether independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal would benefit Donald Trump or Kamala Harris more.
Unaffiliated presidential candidate in the United States Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is, according to media reports, ending his presidential election campaign on Friday.
According to the media, he plans to support the Republican candidate Donald Trumpwho has said he is considering some sort of position for Kennedy in his own administration.
Kennedy’s support has remained at an average of five percent in opinion polls, according to the polls The fivethirtyeight website tells.
A researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute by Maria Lindén according to Kennedy, it is so far difficult to assess the impact of Kennedy’s possible resignation.
– Kennedy seems to have so few voters behind him that it would be strange or surprising if the effect were dramatic, says Lindén.
On the other hand, Trump and the Democrats Horrible Harris and Trump’s race seems to be very tight. The election may be decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in a couple of states.
– Even small changes can prove decisive, says Lindén.
Such changes can be, for example, the weather on the election day, the last minute news, or even the fact that Kennedy would actually bequeath his vote to Trump and not to Harris.
The black sheep of the Kennedy clan
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a 70-year-old environmental lawyer who has been opposing vaccines for years and spreading conspiracy theories especially related to pharmaceutical companies.
He belongs to the famous Kennedy family, which has had a prominent position in the Democratic Party. His father was the Minister of Justice Robert F. Kennedy Sr. and his uncle the president John F. Kennedy.
Kennedy initially ran for the Democratic nomination, but ended up running for president as an independent candidate. The bridges to the Democrats and to my own family have largely been burned.
– Kennedy is a protest candidate, says Lindén.
He attracted those voters who were not enthusiastic about Donald Trump and the president Joe Biden rematch in the elections.
When Biden gave up the nomination in favor of Harris, Kennedy’s roughly ten percent support began to melt away.
Which primary candidate will get Kennedy’s votes?
It is unclear whether Kennedy’s possible resignation will benefit Trump or Harris more.
– It would seem more logical that it would benefit Trump if Kennedy bequeathed his vote to Trump, says Lindén.
According to Lindén, the possible defeat planned for Kennedy in the Trump administration could affect at least those voters who support Kennedy specifically because of the issues he promoted.
However, a large number of Kennedy’s remaining supporters are those who strongly oppose both Democrats and Republicans.
– It is not a strange protest to vote for the candidate of the main party, even if he is taking over this previous protest candidate, says Lindén.
Sources: AP, AFP