“One of the best ideas we ever had.” Obviously, when a German chancellor thus qualifies one of his government’s flagship measures to encourage the use of the train, Paris reacts… and does the same! What is it about ? After experimenting, during the summer of 2022, with a monthly ticket at 9 euros allowing unlimited use of all urban transport, the government of Olaf Scholz decided, in a lasting manner this time, to set up the Deutschlandticket . The idea is simple: for 49 euros per month, everyone can use all regional public transport galore – high speed is excluded. So we would have found the martingale to get the Germans out of their (big) cars!
The key is nothing less than allowing Germany to reduce its CO2 emissions in the transport sector and thus meet its objectives for 2030. Yes, the 9 euro tickets have enabled a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. carbon of 1.8 million tonnes, according to VDV, the main public transport organization across the Rhine. Good news when we know that, French or German, we have not yet succeeded in beginning the decline in emissions linked to road mobility. It was enough for Clément Beaune, Minister of Transport, to announce a similar measure for France: the sesame will be called the Rail pass and will allow French people of all ages to travel, thanks to this subscription, in Intercités or by TER unlimitedly, or even “with buses, metros, trams in big cities”.
Except that… It is a shame that only the satisfaction of Olaf Scholz crossed the Rhine. Visibly lost on our minister were the heated debates between, on the one hand, the Federal Environment Agency and the German equivalent of the French High Council for the Climate and, on the other, the Ministry of Transport. In summary, the former seriously cast doubt on the figures of the latter: in 2030, this measure will reduce emissions by 4.2 million tonnes and not by… 22.6 million tonnes. Moreover, the German High Council for the Climate estimates that this will degrade comfort: more travelers, but less money for investment in the network and in equipment, therefore, in the long term, a degraded attractiveness of public transport and… zero effect on the climate. The experience of the 9 euro ticket confirms this: attendance has certainly increased by 35%, but only 3% of motorists got out of their car to board a bus or train.
A question of offer
Unsurprising results: all experiments with free transport in all countries of the world systematically lead to essentially emptying sidewalks and cycle paths, and few, if any, cars. For what ? Because the use of public transport is less conditioned by price than by the lack of supply: if, for twenty years, 80% of kilometers traveled have been by car in France, a figure unchanged after 100 billion euros have been invested in metros, trams and rail infrastructure (excluding TGV), it is not because the French are addicted to the car, but because public transport is too inefficient or absent.
As recalled by Jean Coldefy, author of the fascinating essay Mobility: change model (ed. Publishroom Factory), the Crédoc surveys are clear: 5% of French people say they do not take public transport for reasons of cost… and 50% because the offer they have near their home does not is not suitable. There is no doubt that they have in particular the 10% of TER canceled, including 25% at the last moment, and the 10% late during peak hours. As for the climate, let’s not forget that 48% of TER trains still run on diesel…
Moral of the story: in transport, as in energy, there are no miracle solutions. The energy transition in transport requires an attractive offer, therefore massive investments, for example in relay parks for cars and bicycles. To do this, the user must pay their share: in Lyon, 50% of the cost is covered by the price of the ticket, compared to 20% on average in France. (Almost) free measures must only target the most vulnerable, unlike a subscription which benefits everyone. Public monopolies must also reduce their costs. As for the omnipresence of the State, it inexorably leads transport operators to spend more time in the corridors of ministries negotiating subsidies than best serving their customers.
* Cécile Maisonneuve is president of Decysive and advisor to the energy and climate center at Ifri.