The mercenary company Wagner has been heavily featured in the news when Russia has captured the small town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine.
The night before Friday, Wagner emphasized in a video he published on the Telegram messaging service that it was its soldiers who took over Soledar and not the Russian army.
Wagner has played a big role in the battles, especially in the Bahmut region, where Soledar is, says Docent of Military Sciences, Visiting Researcher at the Alexander Institute Ilmari Käihkö. Wagner has used fighters he recruited from prisons on the Bahmut front.
– The front section has apparently been under Wagner’s control, and prisoners must have been used a lot in attacks, Käihkö states.
The exact number of Wagner fighters is unknown
Estimates of the number of Wagner forces in Ukraine vary greatly.
In December, the US the Ministry of Defense said (you will switch to another service) that there are 50,000 men in the mercenary army in Ukraine, of which 40,000 are prisoners recruited for the front.
British Intelligence Assessment (you’re moving to another service) was much more cautious: according to it, there would have been 20,000 Wagner fighters in Ukraine in December.
– The numbers are terribly difficult to estimate, but I consider them possible, researcher, major evp. Jukka Viitaniemi The National Defense University says.
The source of the British newspaper The Guardian (you will switch to another service) according to that, already a quarter of Russia’s total strength in Ukraine may be Wagner’s fighters.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia currently has around 280,000 soldiers in Ukraine.
Käihkö, on the other hand, estimates that Russia may have around 200,000 soldiers in Ukraine.
Wagner is split in two
Käihkö states that the mercenary company Wagner is in a way divided into two parts, i.e. ex-soldiers and recruited prisoners.
Professional soldiers served in the original Wagner, for example in Syria and the Central African Republic.
In Ukraine, most of the mercenary fighters are recruited from Russian prisons.
– Prisoners are reinforcements. They can be used much more freely and wastefully than other Russian forces, says Käihkö.
Russia itself claims to have sent 318,000 soldiers into the war in September. Prisoners have had to be recruited, however, because in reality the previous campaign was not successful.
– The forces suffering losses must be able to be replenished even before the next movement. The business launch system in Russia has not been efficient enough in relation to the need. That is the primary reason why there are such a large number of prisoners in Ukraine, Viitaniemi states.
Russia is possibly preparing its next business launch. According to Käihkö, it is currently difficult to assess whether Wagner’s mercenaries will grow in importance in Ukraine.
– It depends on whether there will be a new business proposal. However, Wagner has had much more influence than you might think.
Russia has tried to replace quality with quantity
Prisoners recruited by Wagner sent to the front do not necessarily have any experience in the army. The training given to them has often been very short.
Wagner has lured prisoners into the war by promising to cancel their sentences in return for half a year at the front. According to Käihkö, however, there are no confirmed guarantees about the annulment of the sentences.
It has been possible to get fighters from prisons quickly when quantity has been tried to replace quality.
– It is a good question at which point the quantity starts to compensate for the drop in quality. How many men of bad quality are equal to a thousand good men, so that the effect would be equal. In my opinion, Russia is always behind in this, Viitaniemi reflects.
Controlling prisoners without proper military training is difficult at the front, Käihkö estimates.
– There are hardly any military standards. Yes, it is also reflected in the action. The tactical action has apparently been quite improvised.
Prison soldiers can be mere cannon fodder
Prisoners have practically been sent to the front to die. The losses have been severe.
– They have been used as frontline troops. Regular Russian forces and landing forces have come after them to make breakthroughs, says Käihkö.
– The extreme situation is that Wagner’s soldiers are pure cannon fodder, Viitaniemi states.
It has been feared that the use of prisoners who are completely unskilled in war or who have only received rapid training will further aggravate the war.
However, according to Viitaniemi, this is not necessarily the case.
– You can ask how well the prisoners know the legal rules of war, but you can also ask how well the Russians in general follow the legal rules of war. The indications are that obviously badly, says Viitaniemi.
– Individual-level resilience can still be quite high in prisoners. They are used to surviving in challenging conditions, if you can say so.
Wagner has repeatedly criticized the Russian military leadership
Founder and Director of Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin has repeatedly criticized the Russian military leadership for its failure in Ukraine. Wagner’s forces are not under the direct control of the Russian military command.
– It is possible that there is a power struggle between the armed forces and Wagner, Viitaniemi says.
Despite the criticism of the military leadership, Wagner’s leader Prigožin’s relationship with the administration is similar. Prigozhin is the president Vladimir Putin ally.
– Wagner’s relationship with the administration is very close. They wouldn’t be there otherwise.