BARREL PRICE. The price of a barrel of Brent continues to fall this week, so how to interpret the potential rise in fuel in the days to come? What is the impact of the fuel discount of 18 cents? We take stock.
[Mis à jour le 1er avril 2022 à 14h39] $103. This is the price of a barrel of Brent this Friday, April 1, 2022. The price of a barrel of oil has been in free fall for a week now, could a drop be encouraging? Not really. In view of the surge in its price in the middle of March, the flip side of the coin could well occur as early as next week in French service stations. Remember that the direct repercussion between the rise in the price of a barrel and a potential surge in prices at the pump does not appear before a period of at least 8 days. Should we expect a mechanical drop in the price of fuel at the pump?
Yes, because the fuel discount of 18 cents comes into effect today. In other words, the State has set up a discount which allows you to save 18 cents per liter of diesel or petrol purchased at a service station, an important change on April 1, 2022. The liter of diesel served being around 2.10 euros this morning and throughout France, you should be able to refuel up to €1.92 of the liter. We therefore find the economy of 18 cents provided by the executive. But in reality, this drop could be accompanied by a new rise, and perhaps a fairly significant rise next week, we explain. It is the previous surge that is worrying and which could create a new explosion in prices from the start of next week, the surge in the middle of March. The increase observed this week is already significant: +14 cents on average over a liter of diesel or gasoline in France compared to a barrel of oil. The price per liter is ironed above the 2 euro mark, and the rise could well last. It should be remembered that the effects of the repercussions of the rise in the barrel of oil on the prices charged at service stations increase approximately 8 to 10 days after, in other words, next week. Motorists could therefore find themselves with a liter of diesel once again above 2 euros, despite the discount fuel of the government.
The concern does not fall to international authorities. One “global oil supply shock” is even feared by the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the repercussions could be dramatic on prices at the pump in France, despite this slight lull observed for three days. For the time being, the few discussions started for two weeks between Russia and Ukraine have not been successful, and the threat of a barrel at more than $150 still hovering in the market. To avoid any hiccups in supply, another major concern of the institutions, the IEA plans to release more than 60 million. The organization even suggests that households reduce their consumption by favoring public transport, reducing their speed on the motorway by 10 km/h or even resorting massively to teleworking. Proof if it were needed of the seriousness of the situation, after a month of war in Ukraine.
Since the start of the week, we have seen a small respite with relative stagnation in prices. They dropped back below 100 dollars at the start of the week before rising again significantly. Prime Minister Jean Castex announced two aids on fuel, Wednesday March 16, during the press conference presenting the resilience plan. First, a discount of 15 cents on fuel for all French people from April 1 and for 4 months. Then, more help from 35 cents per liter of fishing fuel for fishermen hard hit by the price explosion. Aid valid from April 17 to July 31 to allow them to go back to sea in decent conditions.
- March 7, 2022: $139 the barrel
- March 8, 2022: $128 the barrel
- March 10, 2022: $110 the barrel
- March 15, 2022: $98 the barrel
- March 16, 2022: $100 the barrel
- March 17, 2022: $106 the barrel
- March 18, 2022: $109 the barrel
- March 21, 2022: $111 the barrel
- March 22, 2022: $118 the barrel
- March 23, 2022: $116 the barrel
- March 24, 2022: $120 the barrel
- March 25, 2022: $120 the barrel
- March 28, 2022: $113 the barrel
- March 29, 2022: $112 the barrel
- March 30, 2022: $111 the barrel
- March 31, 2022: $109 the barrel
- April 1, 2022: $103 the barrel
The war in Ukraine casts doubt on the supply and price of energy. Aside from gas, one question remains central and arouses curiosity, what is the price per barrel of oil in this mess? Rising almost constantly since December 2021, the price of a barrel is now stable around 100 dollars, measured exactly at 103 dollars this Thursday, March 31.
When you fill up with gas, the taxes represent 60% full. And these taxes, they, in spite of the war in Ukraine, fluctuate rather little. In particular the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE), which simply represents the fourth revenue of the State, behind VAT, income tax and corporate tax. the fuel price leaving the refinery, it corresponds to 1/3 full of gasoline. Notably influenced by the price of a barrel of oil on international markets. Gas station attendants will have no choice but to pass on this increase to the price per litre.
Keep in mind that there is a lag time between the increase in the purchase price of a barrel of oil and the real impact on prices at the pump. This time varies 8 to 10 days about. In an attempt to curb this phenomenon, several aids have been put in place and distributed by the Government. In particular the inflation bonus granted to 38 million low-income households, as well as the revaluation of the mileage scale for 2.5 million tax households. The threat of a embargo European on Russian gas could cause the price of a barrel of oil to explode at $300or even more.
According to INSEE, the Russia is the 3rd world producer of oil with 10 million barrels per day, of which 2 million transit to Europe. The Franceshe matters 9% of its crude oil since Russia. And the countries which could substitute the major role of Russia in the export of oil are not legion. Nigeria, Angola and Libya, for example, are not even meeting their own production targets. the Nigeria (9.6% of oil imports in France), theAlgeria (10.3%), and theSaudi Arabia (11.8%) remain crucial trading partners for France to whom the government could turn more to supply the country.
“We have significant strategic oil stocks which cover almost three months of consumption and allow us to deal with supply disruptions. The French are not at risk of running out of fuel or gas for heating in the coming months” declared the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili on February 23. The European Union could even decide to release part of its strategic oil stocks to counter the rise in fuel prices in the face of this major market disruption. A decision taken only three times in history, for example after Hurricane Katrina in the United States.