“What is democratic authority today? It is an authority which is recognized because it does not need to be demonstrated, and which is exercised as much in hollow as in full. ” These remarks by Emmanuel Macron today seem to be a hundred years old, yet they only date from 2016, an interview with Challenges on the eve of his first presidential campaign. This means that the extent of the damage is great at the end of this national tension around pensions, which ended in debate on the “democratic” crisis. “Don’t give up, that’s my motto”, commented the president this Friday, April 14, who more than ever needs to “demonstrate his authority”. Meanwhile, the personal magic of the one who was advancing as a herald of the new world has faded and the institutions have taken one, perhaps several blows of age.
The executive, even if it said nothing so as not to antagonize the Elders and leave illusions to opponents, did not fear the decision of the Constitutional Council unduly. “His role is not to say ‘I like it or I don’t like it’, nor to comment on the vehicles borrowed as soon as they are constitutional”, we remarked at Matignon. The validation of the main part of the reform, this Friday, allows the power to overcome a legal obstacle, failing to solve its political problem. No doubt even Elisabeth Borne will be delighted with the cancellation of the senior employment contract and the senior index, she who did not really like the version finally adopted, resulting from the work of the Senate.
You could call it the parable of Our Lady. A few hours before the Elders decided, Emmanuel Macron visited the cathedral site and remembered April 15, 2019. Faced with the ravaging fire, General Jean-Claude Gallet, commander of the Fire Brigade of Paris, tells him that in order not to break the stained glass or damage the gargoyles, he intends to catch fire with an ax by sending a commando of men to each of the belfries and thus prevent the building from collapsing. Macron: “What if it doesn’t work?” The general: “The risk is that a tower will collapse. There will be dozens of deaths.” Macron: “Can we think for a second?” The general: “Not too long, it goes quickly.” The Head of State will later admit that he has never been so afraid in his life: while the tower threatens to collapse, the firefighters are 40 meters above the ground, threatened by puffs of gas hot at 200 degrees. A few days later, he forged the expression “the art of being French”, which would remain more of a phrase than anything else.
“Have we reached a stage of no return?”
Can we think for a second? For several weeks, Emmanuel Macron has been working on the day after, while being aware, he said in the Netherlands on Wednesday, that “the period will keep track of the disagreements of the moment”. In 2010, the protest in the street against the pension reform had a political outlet, the presidential election two years later. This is not the case this time, there lies the danger. How to engage? Basically, this was the heart of the tension between the head of state and Elisabeth Borne during the former’s trip to China. Matignon recently confided that it would take a period of “healing”, “a time of pressure drop” when the Elysée especially does not want to let the idea settle in that it would be urgent to wait and never balks at pay for words. My center gives way, my right moves back, excellent situation, I attack: we know the Macronian (verbal) temptation. It is a question of overcoming the doubts of public opinion. According to an Ipsos poll, 67% of French people – and, more worryingly for the executive, 51% of supporters of the presidential majority – believe that “the current tensions will contribute to blocking the political situation until the end of the five-year term and prevent Emmanuel Macron from carrying out important reforms”.
The political situation has become so complex. Firstly because the image of the president has suffered a lot and that correcting it becomes more and more difficult with the passage of time: his features are now inscribed in the collective unconscious. “The presidential election was only a year ago, whispers a macronist. This is where my concern comes from: have we reached a stage of no return?” The isolation will only increase in the coming months, as the number of allies of the Head of State will decrease. “The three women around Macron in the decisive meetings of March on 49.3, Elisabeth Borne, Yaël Braun-Pivet (President of the National Assembly) and Aurore Bergé (President of the group of Renaissance deputies), are three women who know that they are there because they imposed themselves against the advice of the President of the Republic”, remarks a member of the government with relevance.
Then, the context offers few solutions. “At this time, a change of Prime Minister would be perceived as unfair and easy, notes an important minister. We do not have enough wind in the sails to do that.” However, for some time now, the government team has looked more like a schoolyard than a battalion of competent and united people.
Finally, it should not be overlooked that the parliamentary majority emerges very dented from the sequence. The use of section 49.3 shook her up a lot. “Everyone must pull themselves together”, begs a Renaissance deputy: she also cites the incredible government disorder – from the arm of honor of Eric Dupond-Moretti to the interview with Marlène Schiappa in Playboyincluding the presence of Olivier Dussopt in Stubborn (out of respect, she ignores that of Emmanuel Macron in Conk) – than the attitude of trade union officials.
Apart from the tense atmosphere that will persist and the anger that could feed extreme votes in the next elections, another anxiety will begin to arise, which relates to the presidential election of 2027. Emmanuel has been criticized for so much Macron to sit on the circumstances of his victory in 2022 against Marine Le Pen, that the Republican vote will be extremely weakened the next time, and will only be done under an avalanche of conditions. This is one of the most pernicious consequences of the crisis. Which makes the need for a rebound not too missed more relevant than ever…