(Finance) – In the coming years and decades increasingly vast and often very poor areas of the planet will be affected by ever greater water shortages. An epochal water crisis that will increasingly become a direct consequence of the climate crisis, as it is largely caused by global warming accelerated by greenhouse gas emissions, with dramatic consequences on the increase in hunger, disease and mass forced migration. Suffice it to say that in just 10 of the countries in the world most affected by climate change – Somalia, Haiti, Djibouti, Kenya, Niger, Afghanistan, Guatemala, Madagascar, Burkina Faso and Zimbabwe – chronic malnutrition could increase by over a third by 2050 , affecting 11.3 million more people than today. AND the alarm raised by Oxfam on the occasion of World Water Week with the first of a series of reports, who will photograph a crisis that will determine the future of the planet.
The dossier – examining 20 of the main countries affected by the water and climate crisis in 4 areas of the world – denounces an emergency that is already affecting 2 billion people in the world that they do not have adequate access to water and that by 2050 it could affect 1 billion more people. A date by which up to could be registered 216 million climate migrants internally globally, including 86 million in sub-Saharan Africa alone.
“Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions and the use of oil, coal and gas is leading to a terrible global water crisis, which must be addressed before it is too late for so many,” he explains. Paolo Pezzati, policy advisor on humanitarian emergencies of Oxfam Italy –. What we are facing is one of the most serious threats that humanity is facing and the poorest and least prepared countries are already paying the highest price, which paradoxically are often also the least responsible for polluting emissions. We already have plastic evidence of this in our daily work to bring water to the most affected communities around the world. Our engineers are forced to dig wells that are ever deeper, more expensive and more difficult to keep running, often only to find already depleted or polluted aquifers. For example, in East Africa, facing its worst drought in 40 years, on average 1 in 5 wells we drill today is already dry where there should be water. The land is dry and we have to dig ever deeper or employ desalination technologies that sometimes don’t work, with ever-increasing costs, just as international aid to deal with the water emergency is declining”.
The climate crisis in East and West Africa – In large areas of theEast Africa over 32 million people are currently starving due to 5 years of drought, an emergency aggravated by ongoing conflicts and rising levels of poverty. Other areas of the same region are instead affected by flash floods and unpredictable rains, which devastate crops and people’s livelihoods in the same way as drought. And the situation is bound to get worse. In fact, Oxfam report reveals that, by 2040, East Africa could be hit by an 8% increase in rainfall, which will trigger a cycle of floods and droughts that would lead to a potentially catastrophic 30% increase in surface runoff of water, which reduces groundwater recharge and lowers the water table, worsening droughts especially for the agricultural sector and for all those people who depend on water wells to survive. A phenomenon that will therefore produce a devastating impact on the impoverishment of the soils, which will be deprived of essential nutrients for crops and will increase the risk that many essential infrastructures will be destroyed by floods. The consequence, for example, could be the exponential increase in cases of malaria which could affect between 50 and 60 million more people by 2030, compared to a scenario in which the impact of the climate crisis were excluded. Similarly also theWest Africa will be affected by the water crisis. In fact, both regions are already facing heat waves more intense by 8-15% and falls in labor productivity by 11-15%, due to mass migrations of communities forced to move to survive hunger and extreme poverty, changes in crops, loss of livestock and the intensification of conflicts caused precisely by the scarcity of water. Globally it is estimated that in the last 20 years the latter have quadrupled, compared to the period 1980-99. “Global warming is increasing the frequency and severity of disasters, which will hit harder and harder in the years to come, while the huge lack of investment in strengthening water systems is leaving the poorest and most vulnerable countries completely unprepared to face new natural disasters – continues Piebald –. Already today, due to the severe drought affecting these areas of Africa, many of the water systems installed by Oxfam are becoming insufficient to guarantee the water needed by the most affected communities, and many shepherds and small farmers, for example, are forced to migrate to seek new pastures. More than 13 million head of livestock have already died in the Horn of Africa due to drought. Meanwhile in South Sudan, floods are sweeping away sanitation facilities, polluting and therefore making available fresh water sources unusable. While the spread of diseases, such as cholera, which are contracted from the use of contaminated water, increases”.
Middle East towards exponential increase in the price of water – Another of the areas most affected by the water crisis is and will be the Middle East, where by 2040 rainfall could drop to the point of causing a sharp decrease in the flow of rivers and the levels of water available in water basins. Heatwaves will increase by 16%, causing labor productivity to fall by 7%, while water prices will increase exponentially as the need and demand for water increases. All this will also cause an increase in food insecurity in countries that are often already affected by very long and atrocious conflicts, such as Yemen and Syria; or in countries like Iraq, (one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of the climate crisis) which is already facing one of the most severe droughts ever, which has affected a vast area of the country. At the moment 7 million people are without water, food and electricity and many farmers are forced to abandon land and animals to migrate to cities and urban centres. In the province of Diyala, in northern Iraq, for example, high temperatures have dried up the water reserves on which the livelihoods of the population depend, including the artificial Hamrin Lake, which has largely become a desert plain.
In Asia, sea levels could rise by half a meter by 2100 – In Asia, however, vast areas will be affected by the rise in sea level, which could exceed half a meter by 2100 and by the melting of glaciers. This will cause flooding and render unusable many of the aquifers on which hundreds of millions of people depend along the coastal areas. Heatwaves will increase by an average of 8% and labor productivity will drop by 7%, with a consequent increase in poverty and migration. A scenario in which diseases such as malaria and dengue could grow by 183%.
Factors aggravating the global water crisis – If climate change is the trigger for the global water crisis we are facing, there are several contributing factors that are leaving millions of people in the poorest and most vulnerable countries completely unprepared to face its consequences, along a trend that is destined to worsen over time . Examples are many: decades of underinvestment in water systems, poor management of the water system, erosion, pollution and overexploitation of underground aquifers, just to name a few.
2.5 billion dollars missing to deal with the emergency – Despite what is already happening and forecasts for the near future, last year donor countries financed just 32% of the 3.8 billion dollars requested by the United Nations to ensure clean water and adequate sanitation in the most affected crisis areas, leaving the countries most at risk of water scarcity, without the necessary resources for investments in adequate and essential water infrastructure. “Continuing with the current levels of emissions we are heading towards a dramatic scenario. – he concludes Piebald – The richest and most polluting nations cannot continue to turn a blind eye, on the contrary it is crucial that they immediately and drastically reduce their emissions and increase aid to the poorest and most at-risk countries. There is still time to correct the course, but we must act quickly!”.
The appeal to governments: 114 billion a year are needed to tackle the global water crisis – Oxfam is therefore launching an urgent appeal to Governments to redirect important investments in the adaptation of national water systems, making it a political priority;
support the United Nations goal of allocating $114 billion annually to address the global water and sanitation crisis. Fundamental resources to save many lives today and which will have a positive impact on the achievement of almost all the other objectives defined by the United Nations in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.