Autumn has started with very mixed weather. Will October and November be milder? We know the forecast for the coming weeks.
Bad weather is back for this early autumn. Rain and then cold will invade France before October. Temperatures will fall below seasonal norms and snow will return at altitude. Forecasts that are therefore very far from the much-hoped-for Indian summer. Is it then possible to expect better for the months to come and in particular for the months of October and November?
In October, the minimum temperatures average 11 degrees and rise to 17 at the highest, but what will happen this year? In 2023, the month of October was divided into two: first a period of remarkable heat, followed by a second part of the month marked by significant rainfall.
For 2024, the forecasts are expected to be less heterogeneous. For the beginning of October, we should not expect a miracle. If the reliability of the forecasts is still a little limited, the majority scenario predicts the passage of new disturbances in the first days of October and therefore rain, storms and gray skies. The rainy passages and the windy episodes should sometimes be very strong. In terms of temperatures, we should expect contrasting temperatures between the morning and the afternoon.
However, a slow improvement with a return to calmer weather could then be on the horizon. Temperatures could gradually move closer to seasonal norms, or even slightly exceed them, according to The Weather Channel.
Mid-October, the days could split in two with calm but foggy weather in the morning, followed by beautiful afternoons. The morning coolness would be there before a softening during the day, the anticyclonic trend would therefore cause significant temperature differences during the day. At the end of October, a new depression could bring unstable, even stormy weather, but this remains to be confirmed given the advance of these forecasts.
For the month of November, the forecasts remain even more uncertain. “On the scale of the October-November-December quarter, the temperatures forecast in France for this autumn should remain barely above the seasonal averages (based on the last 30 years) with a difference close to +0.5°C”, summarizes Weather Consult.
In November, low clouds and fog could appear frequently and temperatures will continue to drop. Significant uncertainty remains over the level of precipitation. While a “beautiful late season” is therefore possible, “calm weather” does not necessarily mean sunshine, recalls Weather Consult.