NUCLEAR WAR. Russia has brandished the threat of the atomic bomb but accuses the West of thinking of starting a nuclear war. Could the conflict in Ukraine lead to nuclear attacks? When Europe entered the war? To a Third World War?
It is “alone and deliberately” that Vladimir Putin “chose war”. In his speech on March 2, 2022, Emmanuel Macron held his Russian counterpart solely responsible for the war in Ukraine and assured that Ukraine and Russia are the only belligerents in this conflict. “We are not at war,” he added as President of the French Republic and President of the Council of the European Union. However this Thursday, March 3, the head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov holds a completely different speech during a press conference and accuses the West of evoking, the first, a nuclear war. “Everyone knows that a Third World War can only be nuclear, but I draw your attention to the fact that it is in the minds of Western politicians, not of Russians.” Unfortunately for Moscow, if we look back it is obvious that Vladimir Putin brandished, on two occasions, the nuclear threat. The first time, on February 24, by presenting Russia as one of the “greatest nuclear powers in the world”, and the second time in a more vague way on February 27, by alerting “the deterrent forces”, part of which is nuclear.
The threat of a nuclear offensive is also minimized by the Atlantic Alliance. The President of the United States, Joe Biden, considers that the Kremlin is using “unnecessary and dangerous provocative rhetoric” when the spokesperson for the French Ministry of the Armed Forces, Hervé Granjean, qualifies the threat “useless and disproportionate” on France info on Wednesday, March 2, 2022. These criticisms do not exclude the possibility of a nuclear attack being prepared, but it is a certain fact that if there is an attack of such magnitude, it will be at the initiative of Russia – Westerners who do not want to take part in the war directly -. But the risks are too great and the benefits few for Russia. Launching a warhead would signify the isolation of Moscow on the international political scene and could trigger a generalized war.
Is the risk of a nuclear attack in Europe real?
The nuclear threat went up a notch on Sunday February 27 with the announcement by the master of the Kremlin that the “deterrent forces” had been put on alert. This panel of military measures, however, includes other levers than a nuclear attack and since Vladimir Putin’s speech the United States has ensured that it has not detected any suspicious or “concrete” movement for the preparation of such an offensive. Physically, Russia is capable of arming nuclear missiles with more than 6,000 warheads at its disposal and a substantial arsenal of bombers, submarines and surface ships but, again, satellite images show no movement strategic. The war in Ukraine concentrates the bulk of Russian military operations, but Moscow has already sent several airstrikes on the Eastern European country and the Kremlin has missiles that can be loaded by nuclear warheads, so the risk is still present. .
Russia’s ability to launch a nuclear offensive does not mean that it intends to cross the red line. Specialists believe that the threat serves rather as an argument to establish political blackmail, to impose itself in a dominant position in the conflict against Ukraine, especially before the opening of the talks organized on Monday February 28, and to dissuade the West to interfere in Russian-Ukrainian relations. Vladimir Putin would therefore have indirectly addressed Europe and the United States to warn them “that in the event of military interference in the conflict with Ukraine, he reserved the option of using nuclear weapons” , according to Rafael Loss, a specialist in nuclear doctrine issues at the European Council on International Relations interviewed by France 24.
Does Russia have an interest in launching a nuclear attack?
If the material threat is real, from a strategic point of view a nuclear offensive would do Russia a disservice in several respects. The massive military operation and the encirclement of Kiev reflect the Kremlin’s objective of seizing power from the Ukrainian capital to place the country under its fold, the Russian government having hammered home its will to “maintain peace” and “liberate “the Ukrainians of the “Nazis in power”. Conducting a nuclear offensive on Ukraine would amount to annihilating the country and would be an action contradictory to Putin’s project, especially since the Russian leader is not held in high esteem in the opinion of the Ukrainian people. It should also be noted that using nuclear force on a country devoid of this strike force is not allowed by the document, signed by the Kremlin in October 2020, which limits Moscow’s nuclear power to four cases requiring a threat effective nuclear weapons against Russia. Such an affront was not addressed to the Kremlin either by Ukraine, or by Europe, or by the United States, the latter two ensuring that they did not want to go to war with Vladimir Putin.
Beyond its military interests in Kiev, Moscow must also deal despite itself with the other nuclear powers which, if they remain in the background on the front, have taken a position in favor of Ukraine and provide it with financial and material support. If Vladimir Putin chooses to launch a nuclear offensive, he poses as an aggressor and exposes himself to an economic, military response from the West, even nuclear if his attack is on Europe, and forces Russia to be isolated on an international scale.
Is Europe at war with Russia?
“We are not at war with Russia,” declared Emmanuel Macron in his speech on March 2, 2022 on behalf of France and more generally of Europe. No Western power plans to take a direct part in the conflict in Ukraine, yet all have taken a position in favor of Kiev and are organizing to provide financial aid to the country as well as logistical and military support. The European Union has thus released 1.2 billion euros to support the Ukrainian economy but also intends, and this is a historic decision, to finance the delivery of military artillery, including lethal weapons, to Ukraine. up to 450 million euros. These announcements dated February 28 prove that the EU is not neutral and plays an even indirect role in this war. France, for its part, has sent military troops to NATO bases neighboring Ukraine, such as in Romania.
Europe justifies this aid by the necessary support to be given to Ukraine, injured in the face of the armada of Russia, and insists that these actions are not carried out against the Kremlin. Otherwise, Moscow, accustomed since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine to rewrite history to its advantage, could use this argument to launch offensives on Europe.
Could the war in Ukraine trigger a Third World War?
Since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia and Ukraine have been the only belligerents to take part in the fight. The United States and Europe have repeated several times that they do not want to participate in the military escalation and do not want to go to war against the Kremlin. However, the origin of the conflict is none other than the desire of Ukraine, a former country of the Soviet Union, to get closer to NATO and the European Union, two organizations representing the western bloc . The war in Ukraine crystallizes the rivalries of the cold war which return to the front of the stage. Vladimir Putin considered that the rapprochement of NATO and the EU in Ukraine was an aggression and a threat against Russia, a speech which confirms the return of this West / East confrontation.
However, NATO and the EU have never shown any desire to accede to Ukraine’s demands and to integrate the country into their members. Kiev defends this idea alone and takes advantage of the Russian attack against it to call on Europe to reconsider its judgment. Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine signed Ukraine’s application for EU integration on Monday February 28, 2022 and delivered a poignant speech to the European Parliament the following day: “Europe will be much stronger with Ukraine within it (…) Without you, Ukraine will be alone. We have proven our strength, we have shown that we are your equals (…) So prove that you are with us and that you are not going to let us down“. While the EU regularly renews its support for Ukraine, it still does not grant its request. The 27 know that accepting Ukraine’s integration would give Vladimir Putin the opportunity to launch an offensive on Europe and perhaps start a world-wide war.