INTERVIEW. While the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been going on for several months, the tension has risen a notch in recent days. If Moscow claims to withdraw troops posted at the border, the United States claims the opposite. The bluffs and the pressure are multiplying. How far ? Lighting with researcher David Teurtrie.
For several weeks, strong tensions have arisen and are intensifying between Ukraine and Russia. At issue: a strong Russian military presence on the border with its neighboring country. If Moscow persists in asserting that these are only military exercises without any other aim, Ukraine is worried about what could happen, in a context of complicated relations between the two nations. The United States has been alarming for several days on an “imminent” invasion supported by various data which would attest to a massive deployment of men by the Kremlin. However, the latter affirmed, on several occasions, that troops were gradually withdrawing. So, is the threat of war real between Ukraine and Russia? Can Vladimir Putin attack? How can de-escalation be carried out? David Teurtrie, associate researcher at Inalco’s Europe Eurasia Research Center and author of Geopolitics of Russia (Harmattan, April 2010) and Russia: the return of power (Armand Colin, November 2021) sheds light on the situation.
The situation has been tense for weeks on the border between Ukraine and Russia. Russian soldiers have been positioned in large numbers (about 147,000 according to the United States) without the intentions of President Vladimir Putin being known and confusion has reigned in recent days. Concretely, can there be a war?
David Teurtry – This is a question to which we do not really have an answer. There are in fact two interpretations of the massive mobilization of Russian troops: the first is that it is a desire to establish a balance of power in order to negotiate. Russia has proposed to the West to renegotiate the security structure in Europe (demands on the end of NATO enlargement, a commitment not to integrate Ukraine into it, withdrawal of Western troops from countries close to Russia , note). A balance of power which would not have vocation to go further, that is to say to go to war.
The second refers to the mobilization of the Russian army, which can make one think of the preparation for a Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Moreover, the demands made by the Kremlin to the West, in the form of an ultimatum, may suggest that there is no real desire to find a solution and that, therefore, this may be a pretext for intervening in Ukraine. It remains difficult to give a definitive answer at present.
“The United States is taking a very alarmist attitude. This is a rare case in history […].”
Why does the United States claim that an invasion is imminent?
The United States is adopting a very alarmist attitude. It is a rare case in the history of a country that announces that another country is going to go to war with a third. According to Washington, it has been “imminent” for two months. They are in a dramatization of the situation, they evacuated their embassy even though nothing has started on the ground. The Americans are in the standoff, knowing that for them, the consequences are more distant than for the Europeans.
Why does France not dramatize the situation?
France and Germany favor a situation to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis. The Europeans have absolutely no interest in having a conflict on their borders and they have an interest in things calming down. So they play the game of diplomacy.
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Russia has, in recent days, announced on three occasions the withdrawal of military troops posted on the border with Ukraine. However, the United States and the NATO countries claim that, on the contrary, their presence has been reinforced. Who to believe?
To analyze these assertions, it is necessary to have means linked to intelligence. It is difficult to say without tangible elements. What we can say is that in any case, we can link this announcement of withdrawal to European diplomatic efforts. This announcement was made after the meeting with the German Chancellor. This may be a way for the Kremlin to say to the Europeans: “You have made an effort. In response, we make a gesture of appeasement, even a symbolic one.”
The Americans seem to answer “not at all, there is no withdrawal.” Regardless of whether there was a pullback or not, the United States has been so alarmist that it’s hard for them to backpedal. We can also think that the Russians may have, in reality, made small symbolic troop movements but that the system has not changed much. It would then be a real false withdrawal.
President Macron recalled, with both Russia and Ukraine, the importance of the Minsk agreements, which are supposed to resolve the crisis in the Donbass. Moscow accuses Kiev of not applying these agreements since 2014 because it would be unfavorable to the Ukrainian side. Recalling the importance of the application of these agreements is a way of going in the direction of Moscow and it does not cost much because the Ukrainians are committed to respecting them.
“Moscow does not currently have an excuse to take action.”
The German chancellor went a little further by saying that the Ukrainian president was going to implement specific points of these agreements, in particular a law on the autonomy of Donbass and a change in the Ukrainian constitution on the autonomy of Donbass. Points that pose many problems for Ukraine, which does not want to create a precedent with a territory that would obtain autonomy.
Russia threatens an invasion if it doesn’t get what it wants. What counterweight does the West have against this? Military? Economic ?
I don’t think you can find a Russian statement saying in essence: “If we are not heard, we will invade Ukraine”. In reality, it is the United States that claims that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. Knowing that Moscow does not currently have a pretext to take action. This is why the United States claimed that Russia was going to invent a pretext. It reminds us that the United States used a pretext to go to war against Iraq.
The Russian side affirms that it is organizing major maneuvers on its territory. Russia affirms its right to mobilize soldiers on its territory. Although in recent days there have been more ambiguous statements from Russian officials (“We will not invade Ukraine unless provoked to do so”, declared Vladimir Tchizhov, Russian ambassador to the European Union European Union, February 14, editor’s note).
The United States has warned that it will not intervene in Ukraine. They staged the evacuation of their embassy, evacuated their military advisers who are training the Ukrainian troops, evacuated part of their diplomatic personnel… It is a very clear signal to make it clear that the Americans are not ready to fight. for Ukraine. It is a form of result for Moscow.
“There is no desire for direct confrontation […].
There is no question of attacking Russia head-on.”
Westerners have delivered weapons in recent weeks (British, Eastern countries). There are reassurance measures, positioning Western troops in Eastern Europe. There is talk of a reinforcement in Romania. But there is no desire for direct confrontation. We are facing the 2nd nuclear power, which could lead to a nuclear conflict. There is no question of attacking Russia head-on. We are talking about economic sanctions announced as massive which are supposed to be so painful that Russia would think twice before taking action.