IS has claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack in Moscow.
Jörgen Holmlund, teacher of intelligence analysis at the Norwegian Defense Academy, believes that there has been a long-term friction between the terrorist group and Russia.
– The fact that you go in and do it in Moscow itself is surprising, he says.
Over 100 people have died after the indiscriminate terrorist attack in a concert hall in Moscow. It is the deadliest attack in Russia in nearly 20 years.
– That you go in and do it in Moscow itself and manage to do it where the FSB and the police are quite strong, it’s surprising, says Jörgen Holmlund, teacher of intelligence analysis at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
He initially reacted with surprise that the Islamic terrorist group IS claimed responsibility for the deed.
– It is a bit far behind in time. But with regard to Russia’s involvement in the war against IS in Syria, where they went in with troops on Bashar al-Assad’s side, there has been a long-term friction between IS and Russia. Here we see the outcome just over ten years after that connection, says Jörgen Holmlund.
Don’t think Moscow orchestrated it themselves
On March 7, the US embassy in Russia warned that IS was planning an attack in the near future. The UK also came up with similar data.
Russian authorities reportedly received this intelligence, but Vladimir Putin did not take it well and dismissed the warnings. Jörgen Holmlund believes that most things point to IS being behind the terrorist attack.
– It indicates that there have been movements around this for quite a long time. Then it takes a group that is quite competent to carry out an act of this caliber, he says.
Is there anything to suggest that this was Moscow itself?
– There have been such discussions that things were orchestrated in order to attack Chechens or other groups. I don’t think that’s the case now. It would not have been packaged information to American and British intelligence organizations if it had been a Russian-packaged connection. This is most likely a serious terrorist attack, he says.