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1 of 5 Photo: Anmar Khalil/AP/TT
Barely two decades after the US invasion, Iraq’s political crisis is deeper than ever.
Ten months after the parliamentary elections, Iraq has neither a government nor a state budget and the torn country is once again close to collapse.
– Those in power are driven by their own interests and not national interests, says Iraq expert Bitte Hammargren.
On the sunburned lawn outside the parliament building in central Baghdad, protesters have barricaded themselves. For two weeks, they have been protesting the parliament’s nomination of pro-Iranian politician Mohammed al-Sudani as prime minister.
The protesters are supporters of the powerful Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr. Last week, they stormed the building and images of thousands of Sadr supporters occupying the plenary hall and sleeping in the corridors were cabled around the world.
The protests are a show of strength from al-Sadr, a religious and political leader who for two decades has been a powerful factor in Iraqi politics, despite the fact that he himself does not stand in any elections.
But the occupation of the parliament building is also a clear indication of how weakened the Iraqi state has become. The building is inside the heavily fortified “Green Zone” in central Baghdad and when the supporters climbed over the high concrete walls, they met little resistance from the armed soldiers.
Power struggle between Shia groups
There is a power struggle between Iraq’s two dominant Shia political blocs. On one side is al-Sadr’s nationalist party, on the other an alliance of pro-Iranian Shia parties and militias, called the Coordination.
Ten months ago, October 2021, there were parliamentary elections in Iraq. The election was driven by mass popular protests dominated by the country’s young generation.
Many had hoped that the election would lead to a change in the corrupt and sectarian political system, but it was rather a setback. The election was boycotted by many young people and turnout ended at 43 percent (34 percent if you count all eligible voters, not just those registered, according to the Iraq Advisory Council).
al-Sadr the winner of the election
Muqtada al-Sadr became the election’s big winner with 73 of the parliament’s 329 seats. The pro-Iranian Shia bloc Coordination, on the other hand, made a bad choice. The Fatah party went from 48 seats to 17.
– Since the election, Muqtada al-Sadr has tried to form a majority government together with the Kurdish KDP and the largest Sunni Muslim party, but the attempts have failed, says Bitte Hammargren, Iraq expert at the Foreign Policy Institute.
After months of negotiation, in June al-Sadr ordered all 73 of his parliamentarians to resign in protest.
New members were quickly sworn into the empty seats, giving the Iran-backed group a majority in parliament. They nominated Mohammed al-Sudani for the post of prime minister. al-Sudani is seen by many as a proxy for former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, who is seen as ruling behind the scenes. al-Maliki is one of Muqtada al-Sadr’s bitter enemies.
– During al-Maliki’s time, corruption and sectarianism grew in the country, says Hammargren.
al-Sadr’s response to the nomination was to order his supporters to demonstrate and demand new elections.
Fear of civil war
There is now a concern in the country that the power struggle between the Shiite groups will start a new spiral of violence.
– The risk of an outbreak of violence is latent. There are those who are afraid of civil war today, says Hammargren.
Iraqis are used to political crises and most are more preoccupied with daily life with constant power outages, lack of clean water and unemployment. In many places there is electricity only a couple of hours a day. In the province of Dhi Qar in southern Iraq, people have been completely without electricity for several days while the temperature has risen to over 40 degrees.
And this despite the fact that Iraq is the oil cartel Opec’s second largest producer, after Saudi Arabia. The basic problem is corruption. According to the organization Transparency International, Iraq ends up in 160th place out of 180 ranked countries.
– Money flows into the country but there is no state budget to tackle Iraq’s enormous problems. Those who rule the country are driven by their own interests, or group interests, and not by national interests, says Hammargren.
Young population
About 60 percent of Iraq’s population is under the age of 25.
– Young people have no faith in the system and the corrupt political class, says Hammargren.
Is there any hope for Iraq then?
– The Iraqis have shown that they have an incredible ability to recover. This country has been on the verge of collapse so many times, but it’s still going strong. It has a young generation with ambitions who want a better life.
Facts
Muqtada al-Sadr
Muqtada al-Sadr comes from a highly respected Iraqi Shia family. His father was the Grand Ayatollah and is suspected of having been killed by Saddam’s regime. Unlike many other Shiite leaders who went into exile during Saddam’s time, including to Iran, al-Sadr’s family remained in Iraq.
Muqtada al-Sadr was the leader of the dreaded Mahdimilis. In 2003, he led an insurgency against both the US forces and Sunni groups.
Muqtada al-Sadr is a nationalist and populist. His followers come from poor Shia areas such as the suburb of Sadr City, with about 2.5 million inhabitants.
Source: UI, Chatham House, Al Jazeera, SKL International
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Background: The conflict in Iraq
In 2003, the US-backed invasion of Iraq began and the dictator Saddam Hussein was overthrown. The US’s vision of spreading democracy in the country did not work, on the contrary, the invasion contributed to the disintegration of Iraq. Suicide bombings and terrorist acts hit innocent civilians who belonged to the “wrong” ethnic group or religious orientation. The violence peaked with growing fears of a full-scale civil war between Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs and Kurds. After the US withdrawal in 2011, the conflict between the three main groups has remained unresolved.
In January 2014, the Islamic State (IS) seized parts of Iraq and proclaimed a “caliphate”. IS’s violence so terrified the outside world that the United States once again intervened militarily in Iraq, with the support of other countries.
The division in Iraqi politics persists, and is characterized by contradictions between forces that the US supports and groups that have close cooperation with Iran. The Shia groups also do not draw evenly among themselves. One attempt after another to bring about a functioning government fails.
Iraq has around 40 million inhabitants. Just over 60 percent are Shia Muslims.
Source: UI
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