(Finance) – The analysts of Intesa Sanpaoloin the baseline scenario, predict that most of the time Brent could still trade in a range of USD 70-90 in the coming monthsunless the current escalation in the war in Ukraine causes significant supply disruptions.
THE supply and demand fundamentals remain constructive in the near term, although they expect them to weaken in 2024, when rising prices will stimulate output growth. Analysts cite: the fact that near-term global demand growth is being driven by Asia, aviation and industry, with the US set to build up strategic reserves again in 2H23 and petroleum product markets very tight to due to low global inventories; geopolitical risks and supply disruptions limit flows, with OPEC+ being proactive and controlling its own production; the fact that in 2024, the crude oil market could return to surplus thanks to the growth of non-OPEC supply.
Furthermore, a report on the subject reads, various risks weigh on the macroeconomic outlook and fuel the volatility of cyclical assets, including commodities: weaker-than-expected global economic growth, recession risks in US and Europe; negative surprises from Chinese data (in particular, disappointing PMIs signaling a contraction in the manufacturing sector); uncertainty about future US monetary policy developments, as most Fed economists suggest caution due to above-target inflation.