(Finance) – Nel In 2023, on average, consumer prices recorded growth of 5.7%, a marked slowdown from 8.1% in 2022. This is what emerges from Istat’s preliminary estimates which indicate inflation still falling in December, falling to +0.6% per year compared to +0.7% in November.
Specifically, according to provisional data, in the last month of the year just ended, the national consumer price index for the entire community (Nic), including tobacco, increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 0.6% on an annual basis. A trend that “is mainly affected by the easing of tensions on the prices of energy goods”, explains Istat. Prices in the food sector, however, show an acceleration in average annual growth (+9.8%, from +8.8% in 2022), despite the attenuation of their trend dynamics, highlighted in the second half of the year.
“Still positive signs on the inflation front for families: as Istat reports, in fact, in December there was a new slowdown in prices, mainly due to energy goods, which in this phase have calmed down the basket, and to processed foods. However, the prospects for the current new year still remain uncertain: purchasing power and savings are increasing, a sort of unexpressed potential energy from which, however, consumption does not benefit, which remains the real patient of the domestic economy”, writes Confesercenti in a note underlining that “the slowdown in inflation from the second half of 2023 should not, therefore, represent an episodic event, above all there is an easing of tensions on the supply side: raw material prices are slowing down, the situation is returning in international supply chains. We should therefore proceed towards a normalization of prices during 2024, although not reaching 2%. And the crux of the ECB’s monetary policy decisions remains: the hope is that we will begin to reduce the cost of money which has a critical impact on families, particularly those with mortgages, and on businesses.”
In this scenario“the weak consumption of families remains of greatest concern, chand have a decisive impact on the overall growth of our economy and which are still in deficit compared to pre-covid levels, even if it is presumable to hypothesize that with the last quarter of 2023 we can finally exceed pre-health crisis levels”.
“The rise in prices and tariffs that hit all sectors in 2023 cost on average 1,796 euros per family by way of greater annual expenditure”, states Codacons, commenting on the inflation data released today by Istat. With consumption being equal, an inflation rate of 5.7% translates into an increase in expenditure from +1,796 euros to nucleus on an annual basis – explains Codacons – Considering the totality of Italian families, this is a maxi-punch of a total of 46.3 billion euros in a single year.
“The slowdown in inflation in the last period of the year can be attributed solely to the downward trend in energy goods, while for primary goods such as food the growth in prices remains sustained – states the president Carlo Rienzi – The measures of contrasts adopted by the government, from the shopping basket to the billboards on average petrol prices, have not had the desired effects, and we hope that truly effective measures will be introduced in 2024 to counter speculation and price increases and protect citizens’ pockets”.
“Istat data on inflation for 2023 demonstrate how the price emergency is far from over in Italy, with families having to face a real blow last year. This is stated Members, commenting on the numbers released today by Istat.
“On the food front, 2023 was a devastating year – explains the president Gabriele Melluso – Only for the food and drink item, which recorded an increase in price lists of +10.1%, a family with two children found itself to spend on average +812 euros, while the “typical” family, with the same consumption, suffered an increase in spending of +584 euros per year. The increases have weighed on primary goods that citizens cannot do without, forcing families to reduce consumption in other sectors, resort to savings to cover expenses or go into debt.”
“The 2024 it must be the year of the turning point on the price front, and in this sense the Government must take action by fighting the speculations that lurk in the formation of retail price lists in all sectors” – concludes Melluso.
The National Consumers Union speaks of a flop compared to the anti-inflation quarter given that “the prices of food products and non-alcoholic drinks, i.e. the goods affected by the Government’s initiative, instead of falling in price in December, continued their upward race, rising by 0.3% compared to November, after they had already risen by 0.4% compared to October”, says Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumers Union.
“As regards average inflation as a whole, +5.7% means that in 2023 a couple with two children spent 1608 euros more than in 2022, of which 147 for housing, electricity and fuel, 153 for transport , 777 for eating and drinking. For a couple with 1 child, the additional expense incurred in 2023 is equal to 1467 euros, 701 only for food and drinks. On average for a family the increase in prices last year is 1177 euros, 570 for feed and quench their thirst. The primacy once again goes to large families with more than 3 children with a bump compared to 2022 equal to 1812 euros, 928 for food products and non-alcoholic drinks” concludes Dona.
Federdistibuzione instead confirms its commitment also in 2024 . “The slowdown trend in price growth is confirmed in December as well. The ‘Anti-inflation Quarter’ initiative, which ended in December and supported with a great sense of responsibility by Modern Distribution companies, produced positive effects in slowing down shopping cart prices and supporting food consumption. During the ‘Anti-inflation Quarter’, families particularly appreciated the Private Label (MDD) products, which guaranteed an always convenient and quality offer.
Neitherl 2024 the distribution companies’ commitment to defending the purchasing power of families will continue. We hope that industrial companies producing branded consumer goods will also contribute to this objective and responsibly intervene to reduce, where possible, the list prices of products. In the last two years, Modern Distribution has made a huge economic effort to combat inflation. It remains essential to support the growth and investments of companies in the sector through regulatory interventions and simplifications, to continue to generate benefits for families and the Made in Italy supply chains”, commented Carlo Alberto Buttarelli, President of Federdistribuzione.
Analysts’ comments – Inflation back above 2% soon “Looking ahead, in the coming months overall inflation “will continue to reflect the trend in energy prices, which in turn will be influenced by the elimination of administrative measures introduced in the past to alleviate the impact of the surge in energy prices on household budgets. For example, in the retail gas market, in January the VAT applied to gas will be brought back to the normal rate of 22% (from the temporary 5%) and the system charges, temporarily suspended, will be reinstated. prices, such as motorway tolls, will be increased, contributing to rising inflation. We expect inflation to return above the 2% threshold as early as March, where it should stabilize for a few months. The risks with respect to this profile include from on the one hand possible unfavorable geopolitical developments in the Red Sea and their impact on transport costs, on the other hand greater downward pressures linked to possible negative surprises on the domestic demand front. For the moment we confirm our forecast of average Italian inflation at 2.2% in 2024”, he comments Paolo Pizzoli, Senior Economist at ING.