One holds an axe, the other a metal stick, in case attackers appear. Anything can happen these days in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, the scene of a bloody battle between two rival armies, of which civilians are the first hostages. On the alert, the two neighbors in djellaba exchange a few small talk before returning to their home in the al-Taif district to the east. Rare are the inhabitants to venture into the streets of the city, day and night under the bombs and heavy gunfire since April 15. Face to face, the regular forces of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, No. 1 of the junta resulting from the October 2021 coup, and the formidable paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo , hitherto No. 2 in power. In less than a week, the clashes left more than 400 dead and 3,500 injured, not counting the thousands of inhabitants who fled to neighboring countries.
Coveted for its gold mines and its strategic position on the shores of the Red Sea, where 40% of international maritime trade transits, Sudan (nearly 46 million inhabitants) is once again sinking into a conflict that is shake the whole area. A war of generals that awakens the old ghosts of the Omar al-Bashir era, the dictator who was deposed in April 2019. “The roots of this serious crisis go back to the end of the disastrous thirty-year reign of the former president , analyzes in a note the International Crisis Group. Distrustful of the army, at the origin of several coups d’etat, al-Bashir had fragmented the security forces into competing centers of power, so that no one can overthrow him. [crées en 2013] transformed from a brutal counter-insurgency militia to a sort of praetorian guard.”
The troubled game of Sudan’s neighbors
Four years after the fall of al-Bashir, the heirs of this “two-headed army” are wrestling power. “These generals don’t give a damn about civilians, denounces Sarah*, an employee of an international organization who managed to escape the rockets to leave the capital by car. They are fighting in the middle of residential neighborhoods and have only one idea in mind: to become the next president.” Al-Burhane and Dagalo (nicknamed “Hemetti”) had nevertheless concluded an alliance of circumstances to derail the democratic transition during the putsch of October 2021… With a common interest: to escape any prosecution for their war crimes perpetrated under the regime of al-Bashir. But the peaceful protests have never stopped since.
Paralyzed by the street, cut off from international financial aid, the regime wasted no time in cracking. The enemy brothers then signed an agreement on December 5, 2022 committing them, under the auspices of the UN and the United States, to re-establish civilian power within two years. But behind the scenes, war is brewing. “During these discussions, we forgot who we were dealing with, deplores Cameron Hudson, Sudan specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington). These generals use the negotiating table to gain time, but they prefer to negotiate with arms.” At the heart of the dispute, the integration of RSF militiamen into the national army, which “Hemetti” wanted to delay as much as possible. And for good reason, the leader of these “paras”, known for his acquaintances with the Russian mercenaries of Wagner, counts on his men to preserve his interests. “They got their hands on the gold mines of the country, the second largest producer in Africa, says Claude Rilly, historian of Sudan. It is one of the sources of financing for the war in Ukraine.”
With the involvement of Sudan’s neighbours, this factional war could degenerate into a civil war and turn the region into a powder keg. Egypt already provides air support to the national army. Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar lent at least one plane to the RSF militias, according to the wall street journal. “Neighboring Ethiopia could also get involved to avoid a victory for al-Burhane, which would mean increased influence from Cairo and possible sabotage of the Great Renaissance Dam, to which Egypt is hostile,” warns the professor of political science Bashir Elshariff.
In Khartoum, the trap closes on the civilians. On the morning of April 21, the end of Ramadan, the bombardments drown out the chanting of the muezzins. This year, Eid was very sad.
*Names have been changed.