BRUSSELS / HELSINKI NATO countries would probably accept Finland as a member of the Defense League quickly. Member countries are also already preparing for Russia to start skipping due to enlargement. However, intimidation would not water down Finland’s accession.
This is what several foreign experts say, from whom asked for an assessment of Finland’s accession to NATO and possible stumbling blocks during the application process.
Their assessments are in line with the latest reports from NATO. Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that a political decision on Finland’s NATO membership can be made very quickly.
If Finland decides to apply for membership, the political decision to invite Finland to become a member can be made in an instant, says a professor from Brussels who is familiar with NATO’s activities.
Membership can take place literally overnight, says a professor of international security policy Alexander Mattelaer Interview with from the VUB University in Brussels.
Finland has not yet announced its application to the Defense League, but the state leadership and parliament are currently having a very lively debate on the matter. Prime Minister Sanna Marin (sd.), Among others, has stated that a decision must be made within the spring.
“Decision making very straightforward”
Becoming a NATO country will only take place once all 30 current members of the Alliance have accepted in their respective parliaments as a new member of the candidate country’s defense alliance.
Mattelaer’s very rapid implementation of membership means a political decision that would effectively seal the candidate country’s entry into the Defense League. The refinement of the details and the ratification in the member states would follow.
Mattelaer emphasizes that the decision on a new member in NATO is ultimately political and therefore very straightforward if necessary. Adoption takes place in a very different way than, for example, in the EU, where there is a real jungle of verses.
Accessing the EU requires a lot of legal and technical background work and, among other things, updating the applicant’s own legislation.
The opposite is true of NATO, as already evidenced by the Defense Charter’s concise charter, the North Atlantic Treaty. It can be printed on one sheet of paper if necessary, Mattelaer illustrates.
Another expert from the British Institute for Strategic Studies, IISS, has the same lines.
When the newest members of the Defense Alliance, Montenegro and Macedonia, joined NATO, ratification took about a year for both candidates. In the case of Finland and also Sweden, which is considering membership, the pace would be quite different.
– We can talk about weeks here. In any case, things would go much faster, says the program director William Alberque.
Alberque is responsible for strategy, technology and disarmament research at the IISS Research Institute.
Hungary and Putin’s friend Orban as a concern
According to IISS’s Alberque, the only concern on Finland’s possible NATO route is Hungary.
NATO is headed by an authoritarian prime minister Viktor Orbánwith close ties to the president Vladimir Putin.
However, Alberque does not believe that Hungary will end up as an obstacle to Finland’s membership.
He recalled that Hungary accepted the accession of both Montenegro and Macedonia to NATO, although Russia strongly opposed the membership of both.
The Belgian professor Mattelaer also estimates that there will be no major problem for Hungary if Finland ends up applying for membership. Both Finland and Hungary are members of the Union, and the transformation of a northern EU country into a NATO country would not be a big deal for Hungary.
– It would be diplomatically reckless to make this a problem, Mattelaer says.
Assessment: Turkey would not stop Finland’s NATO road – but is seeking reciprocal services
Like Hungary, Turkey would probably not take action to prevent NATO enlargement.
Instead, Turkey may see an opportunity for Finland and possibly Sweden to apply for many counter-services from the West, according to several Turkish NATO experts.
Turkey could start trading with the country’s EU aspirations, for example. Membership negotiations have been stalled for a long time and the country has fallen into an increasingly authoritarian presidency in 2014. Recep Tayyip Erdoğanin in a tight grip.
“Among other things, Turkey’s aspirations would be to give new impetus to the EU membership process, and Turkey wants to be involved in European arms industry cooperation,” says the professor of international politics. Şaban Kardaş from the private TOBB University.
There are good examples of pursuing one’s own interests in recent years. Turkey can also tighten on things that suddenly don’t even seem to have anything to do with each other.
In 2020, for example, Turkey blocked NATO’s plan to strengthen its capabilities in the Baltics and Poland because of the Russian threat. According to media reports, Turkey would have demanded from NATO a retaliatory service in which a military alliance would have declared Syrian Kurdish guerrillas as terrorists or assisted in northern Syria, which had been attacked by Turkey.
Turkey considers Syrian Kurdish guerrillas to be part of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey says is a terrorist organization.
Turkey eventually gave up its resistance and it is unclear whether it received any concessions.
The abrasions between NATO and Turkey are also linked to Turkey’s attempts to strike a balance between Russia and the West. For example, the United States canceled deliveries of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey after Turkey bought Russian anti-aircraft missiles.
Despite the trade, none of the experts interviewed by believe that Turkey would be a real obstacle to Finland’s possible NATO path. According to them, the United States, despite the differences between the countries, is the dominant NATO country that will ultimately control Turkey’s position.
– I have no doubt that Turkey would support Finland’s membership, says the retired diplomat Murat Ersavciwhich leads the Tepav think tank in Ankara.
“Noise is expected from Russia, of course”
And could Finland’s and Sweden’s access to NATO be canceled due to severe pressure from Russia?
Russia will certainly react in some way, but they know how to prepare for the defiance in NATO countries, says William Alberque, director of research at the British IISS Institute.
– Of course, noise is expected from Russia and the Russians are looking for opportunities to cause a rift among the allies. However, I believe that Russia understands that membership is inevitable.
For example, the Kremlin’s press secretary Dimitri Peskov said on Thursday that Russia would have to “balance the situation” with its own actions if Finland and Sweden joined NATO. In the past, Russia has talked about, among other things, serious military and political implications that would require retaliation.
Alberque says that Finland’s and Sweden’s co-operation with NATO has progressed so far that membership would come as no surprise to Russia.
Alberque, who has worked at NATO on arms control and the limitation of weapons of mass destruction, also does not consider it likely that Russia will be able to influence enlargement by threatening key NATO countries such as Britain and the United States. On the contrary, intimidation could make decision-making faster than expected.
“Retreat would be NATO’s destruction”
– If the United States and Britain retreated in the face of the Russian threat, it would be NATO’s end. Should Russia tighten the situation, NATO would react by convening an emergency meeting instead of retreating. There would be very rapid acceptance of membership in the member states ahead, Alberque estimates.
According to him, it is very possible that Finland will seek security guarantees from NATO’s three nuclear-weapon states, namely Britain, France and the United States, during the membership process.
Security guarantees were probably also for the president Sauli Niinistö on the agenda when he met with the President of the United States in Washington in March Joe Biden, Alberque guesses. He goes even further in his reflection.
– When Finland announces its intention to join, the next question is whether Britain and the United States will announce the security guarantees to be given to Finland. I believe such a announcement will come. Absolutely.
Foreign minister Pekka Haaviston According to Finland, Finland has been in very active contact with major NATO countries such as the United States, Great Britain and Turkey. According to Haavisto, Finland will be supported during a possible application process.
“Yes, these countries will then support it and use their own prestige and policies to support the success of the membership process,” Haavisto said in an interview with in Brussels.
Estonian Ambassador to NATO: The atmosphere is positive
Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg for its part, assures that Finland’s possible application has the support of NATO countries.
– I am sure that the 30 members of NATO will warmly welcome Finland to become a member of NATO, Stoltenberg said after the NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting on Thursday.
The Estonian ambassador to NATO is on the same lines Jüri Luikwho says he has had background discussions on the matter.
– I dare say that the atmosphere is positive, Luik tells .
Luik points out, however, that formal proceedings will only begin if Finland ends up applying for membership. In that case, the decision has the support of Estonia.
Luik also estimates that Finland’s membership process would probably be smooth.
– Formalities can be completed relatively quickly. The Finnish Defense Forces are well known in NATO. Our cooperation has been long-term, detailed and technical.