Barely three days. This is the time it took China to place on the grill the new Taiwanese president, Lai Ching-te, whose mandate begins under complicated auspices. At 7:45 a.m., Thursday, May 23, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched Operation Joint Sword-2024A: two-day military exercises around Taiwan with a deluge of verbal threats.
These maneuvers, which mobilize the army, navy, air force and rocket unit, have put Taiwan’s defenses on alert. The objective is to verify the “capacity to take power, to carry out joint strikes, and to control key territories”, the Chinese army warned on Friday May 24. “Designed to encircle Taiwan from both east and west, the exercises showcase the PLA’s ability to strike in all directions on the island, with no blind spots, creating a pinned-down situation on both sides”, drums the Chinese daily in English Global Timesclose to the Chinese Communist Party, while on its website a video with bombastic music shows ships and planes preparing for action.
China, which considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory, presents these maneuvers as a response to William Lai’s inauguration speech, delivered at the beginning of the week. “Since taking office, the leader of the Taiwan region has seriously questioned the principle of one China […]which pushes our compatriots in Taiwan into a perilous situation of war and danger”, thundered a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Defense. Before promising to push retaliation “a little further” with each new “provocation Taiwanese, “until the complete reunification of the motherland is achieved.”
A dangerous “separatist” in the eyes of Beijing
William Lai, who was elected in January, but took office on Monday May 20, allowed the Democratic Progressive Party, a traditionally pro-independence party, to win a historic third consecutive mandate, after those of President Tsai Ing-wen, who arrived in power in 2016. Very cautious, the latter sought during its years in power to preserve the status quo, avoiding a formal declaration of independence – even if the island de facto leads an autonomous policy – which would be equivalent to Beijing declares war. In his speech, William Lai also promised to preserve the status quo. But Beijing considers him a dangerous “separatist”, since he described himself in 2017, when he was Prime Minister, as a “pragmatic worker for the independence of Taiwan”.
Certain nuances of his inauguration declaration, imperceptible to a non-specialist, further aggravated his case. “I hope China will face the reality of the existence of the Republic of China [NDLR : le nom officiel de Taïwan]will respect the choices of the Taiwanese people and, in good faith, will choose dialogue rather than confrontation”, he insisted in particular. Another sentence which almost made the communist leaders choke: “Even if we accept the entirety of China’s position and renounce our sovereignty, China’s ambition to annex Taiwan will simply not disappear”, insisted the Taiwanese number one, before urging China to “stop its intimidation political and military.
One thing particularly irritates Beijing: the fact that the new president refers to two states, while for the communist regime, there is “only one China”. “What William Lai said in his speech suggests he may deviate from Tsai Ing-wen’s moderate line. He has been firmer on Taiwan’s sovereignty, and has not returned to some conciliatory gestures of her predecessor while Tsai had left ambiguities in her characterization of relations between the two sides of the strait, Lai seems to be opposed to it: he wants to assert loud and clear that China and Taiwan are two distinct states”, underlines Amanda. Hsiao, analyst at the International Crisis Group, an NGO whose mission is to help resolve conflicts.
“This is a warning to both William Lai’s administration and Washington that China can and will continue to pressure Taiwan if Lai does not return to a more moderate tone and approach,” he said. But such a forceful approach could backfire. Given the Lai administration’s deep distrust of Beijing and the domestic pressures it currently faces, Taipei could be even tougher. its line of conduct vis-à-vis China.
Sashimi Strategy
In fact, the Chinese authorities, who seek to isolate the island, seize the slightest opportunity to punish Taiwan, believe several local researchers. Beijing had carried out military exercises of a historic scale after the visit of Nancy Pelosi, to Taipei, in August 2022, then president of the American House of Representatives, in August 2022. Then other large-scale maneuvers in April 2023, after Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with McCarthy, Pelosi’s successor, in California. “China is seeking to flex its muscles in the new government. These types of actions are a clear attack on the security and prosperity of the region. But Taiwan is determined to maintain the status quo, we do not want to be provocative “reacted Deputy Foreign Minister Tien Chung-Kwang in the presence of journalists.
Taiwanese experts observed the Chinese maneuvers very closely. “With 62 planes, and 27 navy and coast guard ships in the Taiwan region, these are, after two days, medium intensity exercises. Unlike what she did after the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the PLA did not launch ballistic missiles or long-range rockets, nor did it carry out live-fire exercises”, summarizes Si-Fu Ou, who receives L’Express at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), a military think tank, whose premises are those of the former headquarters of the Japanese army during the Second World War.
Be careful, however, to see these maneuvers as nothing more than a simple routine. “The PLA ships have come closer than ever to the contiguous areas of Taiwan (24 nautical miles), continues this expert. In addition to the firepower deployed off the coast of Taiwan, four Chinese coast guard ships have penetrated this Friday in the “forbidden waters” of the islands of Wuqiu and Dongyin, belonging to the Taiwan archipelago. Already, last February, Chinese coast guard vessels had brushed against the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen, located near the Chinese city of Xiamen. Incursions which are part of a “psychological war” aimed at “scaring the Taiwanese people”, sighs Si-Fu Ou.
The pressure is expected to continue to increase in the future. Chinese media also suggest that these two days of military exercises could only be the first in a series. “Beijing is trying to create a new normal, to weaken the status quo, using a method that I call the ‘sashimi strategy’: progression in small steps, so as not to create too strong a foreign reaction. a global strategy, combining disinformation, economic coercion, and gray zone conflicts, such as military exercises,” explains Su Tzu-Yun, also a researcher at the INDSR, his reservist rifle placed at his side.
Despite these attempts at intimidation, life continued this Friday, under a white sky and high humidity, as if nothing had happened, in the Taiwanese capital. “I’m not really worried, in fact I don’t even pay attention to it: the Taiwanese are getting used to these kinds of shows of force. Of course a war would be terrible, but I don’t think the Chinese will attack soon, because they have a lot of internal problems to resolve first,” says Yu-lin, a 26-year-old airline pilot, before putting on his helmet and getting on his scooter. “They do this to disturb us, because they don’t want us to live peacefully, but they don’t really want to attack us. I don’t worry,” says Daisy, a 62-year-old woman, wearing a sanitary mask, a few meters away. “We’re trying to live our daily lives. There’s nothing I can do about it anyway,” concludes Rachel, a government employee in her thirties. The Taiwanese population would, however, be wrong not to take the Chinese threat seriously. The next few months could make her change her mind…
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