Russia’s massing of more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and the possibility of an invasion at any moment, according to the White House, are the most important agenda items in many capitals, including Washington. Western countries stress that harsh sanctions will be imposed on Moscow in case of invasion of Ukraine
The world almost held its breath, waiting for the Ukrainian decision to come out of the two lips of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Kiev, Paris, London, Berlin, Washington and others…There is an anxious wait in the capitals.
Ukrainian soldiers have their eyes on Russia across the border. They are trying to closely follow the international talks on their future.
Soldier Oleh Surhov said, “I don’t think the Russians started the talks to reach an agreement. I understand Europe’s concern. They have their own fears and desires. But I don’t think Russia is interested in these talks. They have their own plans. They won’t stop. I think there is nothing to negotiate with Russia. They’ve been trying to negotiate for 8 years, but they still haven’t succeeded,” he says.
It is stated that the possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia may cause the death of thousands of soldiers and civilians.
Some Western countries, especially the United States, are making efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s defense.
Washington has provided Ukraine with $2.5 billion in military supplies since 2014.
Apart from America, England, Turkey, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine are among the countries that provide the military equipment they need. But Ukraine says it needs more.
Kiev states that it needs helicopters, communication systems, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, medium and short-range air defense systems.
While Western countries are trying to strengthen Ukraine’s defense, they are also trying to compromise on sanctions to be applied to Russia in case of a possible invasion.
For the sanctions to be effective, it is very important for the United States to compromise with its allies.
So what could these sanctions be?
Stopping Russia’s use of the US dollar, removing Russian banks from the SWIFT system and pushing them out of the international banking system, enforcing export control to Moscow, which will affect almost every sector of Russia, especially defense, where technology is used, especially considering the effectiveness of the US in the technology sector. is reported.
Not only these…
It is in question that American financial institutions are completely banned from buying Russian government bonds, that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was built to increase the natural gas flow from Russia to Germany-Europe, is not operational, and that the family members close to the Russian President, including Putin, and wealthy businessmen are also included in the scope of sanctions. .
Foreign Minister Antony Blinken said, “The steps we will take together are directly what President Vladimir Putin cares deeply about, including the technology that Russia wants to develop for defense, which is most important to Russia with its ability to be economically and financially engaged, and as the President has said, everything. everything is on the table,” he said.
So how will a possible Russian-Ukrainian conflict affect the markets?
Such a situation is expected to increase primarily wheat and energy prices.
The disruption of the operation of commercial vessels in the Black Sea can have a significant negative impact on food prices.
Oil markets could be affected by disruptions due to sanctions. Ukraine transports Russian oil to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
It is stated that investors may turn to bonds and gold prices may increase.
The situation may also cause significant uncertainties on the currencies of the countries in the region.
Considering that 35 percent of European natural gas comes from Russia, especially in these days of winter, the interruption of Russian natural gas due to possible sanctions is perhaps the biggest concern in Europe.
White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said at a press conference: “Power lines passing through Ukraine are affecting the natural gas market in Europe. We are in communication with our European allies on the plan. It’s part of the process. We are working on supplying additional natural gas from North Africa, the Middle East, Asia and America. “We are in the process of negotiating with the global gas producing countries to understand their capacities and temporarily increase their production and allocate it to European buyers,” he said.
While the possible invasion of Ukraine seems to significantly affect the global economic order, there will also be changes in the military sense.
NATO’s eastern flank is being strengthened militarily.
America has a total of 74 thousand soldiers in Europe, including Turkey, and this seems to increase in the coming period.
From a military and economic perspective, President Biden’s words perhaps sum up the situation.
“If Putin takes action, it will be the biggest invasion since World War II,” Biden said. This will change the world,” he said.
The economy, the military deployments, but most importantly the possible casualties in the possible invasion.
In 2014, approximately 15,000 people lost their lives in conflicts with Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Considering that Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, a possible invasion is likely to result in a lot of casualties.
There is a fearful wait in the residential areas on the Russian border in eastern Ukraine.
A woman named Liubov said, “We are all waiting for peace. Neither our children nor our grandchildren can visit us. My grandson is 13 years old, I want to see him, he wants to come too, but they can’t. I shout at them and do not let them come. We are talking on the phone. “We have to wait until peace comes,” he says.
There is a little hope at the border…
Another Ukrainian soldier, Serhii Uskakov, said: “I think we will join NATO and America will help us. Not only the United States, but also the European Union and NATO. “I am hopeful that it will have positive results for us.”
The Western world is facing its toughest test against Moscow since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The outcome of the exam will become clear in the coming days. As Foreign Minister Antony Blinken said, the ball is now on the Russian side.