The dunce has found his way back to school. Every Tuesday, Laurent Wauquiez goes to the new headquarters of the Republicans (LR), a stone’s throw from the National Assembly, for a strategic meeting around the European elections. He, Laurent Wauquiez, so long detached from the affairs of his party. In this weekly closed session, the boss of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (Aura) does not just sign the attendance sheet. He distils advice and analyzes to the LR staff, under the watchful eye of head of the list François-Xavier Bellamy.
The conclave often begins with a study of the latest polls. Laurent Wauquiez dissects them in front of his peers, focusing on the second choices of voters of Emmanuel Macron or Eric Zemmour. “He almost leads the meeting. I feel that this sometimes annoys Eric Ciotti,” smiles a participant in the feast.
The former minister provides strategic directions. He calls on his camp to arrogate to itself the monopoly of the “right” and pleads for the denunciation of a “hidden plan” of the government to increase taxes. “Control our destiny”: the slogan chosen by the right is not its own. Laurent Wauquiez suggested other proposals to submit to the Cluster 17 polling institute, LR provider.
With François-Xavier Bellamy, exchanges are almost daily. Laurent Wauquiez received him in the Lyon suburbs on March 27 for a trip around drug trafficking and attended his meeting in Aubervilliers three days earlier. “He has experience and perspective on the daily life of the campaign. His perspective is precious,” greets the MEP. The ex-minister is wary of harsh criticism of the campaign of the leader of LR, stagnated at 8% of voting intentions. He just judges that the results of the LR delegation, held up as a standard by the Versaillais, are not a determining factor in the vote. “He would like Bellamy to be less conceptual,” notes an interlocutor.
Show your credentials, without exposing yourself too much
Quietly, Laurent Wauquiez strengthens his influence on the right. The one who gave up on winning the presidency of LR in 2022 nourishes a utilitarian relationship with his political family. He gets closer to it when his interests incline him to it, and moves away from it when it smells burnt. He misses out on strategic advice – endless meetings where current affairs are discussed – but is diligent in meetings of the National Nomination Commission, responsible for nominating candidates for the elections.
This quest for the right distance pushed him to make mistakes, as during the pension reform. Laurent Wauquiez stayed away from an abrasive debate and was unable to contain the revolt of some LR deputies against the party leadership. Since then, he has worked to correct the situation. During the examination of the immigration bill, Laurent Wauquiez went to a group meeting of LR deputies to calm emerging tensions with their fellow senators. In the middle of the Joint Joint Commission, Eric Ciotti and Bruno Retailleau argue over the reform of the APL. The ex-president of LR calls them in turn to put out the start of a fire.
Show your credentials, without exposing yourself too much. Laurent Wauquiez puts this strategy to music during the European elections. He gives assurances to his camp, but remains faithful to his strategy of media discretion. He did not speak at the Aubervilliers meeting and François-Xavier Bellamy does not imagine him coming out of the woods between now and June 9. “He wants to be able to say that he was present in the event of a good score, but not to have been seen in the event of a bad one,” jokes an LR advisor. “He never takes risks for others.”
“We can build on ruins, not on ashes”
Laurent Wauquiez knows how presidential ambitions can be smashed against the wall of European elections. Nicolas Sarkozy almost never recovered from his failure in 1999. He himself was forced to leave the presidency of LR – and pass his turn for 2022 – after the rout of François-Xavier Bellamy in 2019. Five years have passed , the right has not stopped its fall. So, the Wauquiez camp is working to uncorrelate the destiny of the Bellamy list and its champion. The vote takes on the appearance of a sanction vote against Emmanuel Macron, 2027 is so far away. “We are not skipping the European deadline, but this election does not announce the presidential election,” insists a relative.
It is generally agreed that the disappearance of the right of the European Parliament would reduce LR’s chances of reconstruction to a crawl. And would jeopardize the chances of the former minister. “Laurent is aware that we can build on ruins, but not on ashes,” notes MEP Brice Hortefeux. “If our score is bad, everyone will be contaminated. Including Laurent Wauquiez, whether he wets his shirt or not,” Eric Ciotti confided to a relative a few months ago.
In the event of a rout, the reform of LR’s statutes to facilitate the designation of Laurent Wauquiez as candidate for the Elysée – Eric Ciotti’s campaign promise – would be in trouble. The rivals of the former mayor of Puy-en-Velay – Xavier Bertrand, David Lisnard – will underline his illegitimacy. So, you might as well get involved. But behind the scenes, of course. The boss of Aura is thus interested in the fate of Reconquête, threatened with disappearance in the event of failure on June 9. “We must put Zemmour below 5%,” he assured an LR executive. And thus limit the dispersion of right-wing candidates in 2027.
“If you’re going there to get laid…”
2027, the goal of a lifetime. Laurent Wauquiez has his eyes fixed on this deadline, and is not deviating from his strategy. He intends to remain in the background during the first phase of the five-year term, and promises to pick up the pace when the French plan for the next presidential election. When Macron comes out of the game, he will reveal his. Absent from the audiovisual media, Laurent Wauquiez is currently multiplying interviews with the written press and forums in which he outlines his political offer: a denunciation of the impotence of the State, hampered by justice and standards.
What does it matter about the polls giving him 5% voting intentions? What do the smirks from the presidential camp matter when his name is mentioned. “I am totally optimistic that I will win the presidential election of 2027,” he confided to Express in 2023. This determination impresses – or worries – his interlocutors. “If you’re going there to have fun, there’s no point,” a relative whispered to him. He was sent back to the ropes. Man wants to believe in his destiny, and increases his exchanges with elected officials. He recently had lunch with the former Yonne MP Guillaume Larrivé. The State Councilor advised him to publish a book on the model of Freea confessional work written by Nicolas Sarkozy in 2001. The former president began writing it after… his crash in the European elections.
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