(Finance) – One possible recovery in German industry “And still far away“. This was stated by the economists of the Studies and Research Directorate of Intesa Sanpaolo, after it emerged this morning that industrial production fell by -0.4% m/m in October 2023, thus recording the fifth consecutive decline despite expectations of an increase (consensus: +0.2% m/m); in the previous month the decline was -1.3% m/m (revised upwards by one tenth).
Compared to a year ago, output is down by -3.5%, while compared to pre-Covid levels it is still lower by -8.8%. Furthermore, production in manufacturing decreased by -0.5% m/m, output in the buildings fell by -2.2% m/m, while thepower it started to grow again (+7.1% m/m).
Economists also highlight that, overall, the IFO and PMI confidence surveys are starting to show the first timid signs of an easing of the contraction in manufacturing. Added to the manufacturing difficulties is the profound crisis ofbuildingtriggered by the increase in the costs of materials and energy, and in interest rates.
“Due to the context described so far, we expect a GDP contraction of -0.2% q/q in the 4th quarter after the near stagnation (-0.1% q/q) recorded during the summer but the degree of “uncertainty remains high – we read in the research – Our quarterly projections are compatible with a GDP contraction of -0.2% on an annual average in 2023; we do not expect a strong recovery next year: with an industry in such difficulty and a host of other unresolved, but urgent, economic problems Germany risks growth just above zero in 2024“.