(Finance) – The data of the German IFO index released this morning are “compatible with a GDP contraction of -0.2% q/q in the summer quarterwith risks oriented downwards”. This was stated by the Studies and Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo in a report on the subject.
The IFO index fell to 85.7 from 87.4 (revised from 87.3), a minimum since October 2022; the figure is well below consensus expectations (86.7). In particular, the assessment of the current situation worsened to 89 from 91.4 (revised from 91.3), a minimum since 2009 if we exclude the months of the first lockdown. Expectations for the coming months worsen, but less so than current conditions, with the index falling to 82.6 from 83.6 (revised from 83.5), a low since November 2022.
According to analysts, the decline in the IFO survey is not isolated: in France, business confidence has also lost ground. By mid-week, the PMI survey had signaled a contraction in activity in both manufacturing and services in the Eurozone. Next week, the Istat survey and the economic confidence index (ESI) developed by the EU Commission will complete the picture. “Nevertheless, we confirm for now the forecast of a 4% terminal level for the deposit facility rate”, reads the report.