German faith in the future recovers somewhat

The so-called Zew index for August rose to minus 12.3, up from minus 14.7 in July. Analysts on average had expected a decline to minus 14.9, according to a compilation of forecasts made by Bloomberg.

A sub-index focusing on the view of the current situation, however, fell deeper than expected, to minus 71.3 from minus 59.5 in July. There, expectations were minus 63.0.

The Zew Institute regularly asks 200 German investors and analysts about their views on the economy over the next six months.

Growth in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is after a recession last winter in a stagnation phase and, according to a survey presented by Bloomberg earlier this week, is expected to be only 0.1 percent in the third quarter.

Weak demand from China, labor shortages and higher interest rates are weighing on the German economy, which is still reeling from the aftermath of the 2022 energy crisis.

The survey was carried out on 4-10 August and gives a slightly more gloomy picture of the situation than the last previous survey a month earlier.

For the whole of 2023, German GDP is expected to decrease by 0.3 percent and the recovery in 2024 will, according to the assessors in Bloomberg’s survey, remain at 0.8 percent.

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