(Finance) – Natural gas consumption in Italy “have remained substantially stable over the past twenty years” while in the same period, “national production decreased, due to the natural decline in fields and the absence of investments. Therefore we have become almost completely dependent on imports: Today more than 95% of natural gas consumed in Italy is imported from abroad “.
This was stated by the Minister of Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, during a briefing to the Chamber underlining that “imports from Russia have increased both in absolute value and as a percentage of consumptionfrom about 20 billion cubic meters (25% of consumption) in 2011 to 29 billion in 2021 (38% of consumption)“.
“In the short term, thanks to the expected improvement in climatic conditions, it is estimated a reduction in demand for civil use equal to about 40 million cubic meters per day already at the end of March, in standard cold conditions. Therefore, even a complete interruption of flows from Russia from today should not lead to internal supply problems “, he continued. “Any peaks in demand could be absorbed by appropriately modulating the volumes in storage or with other import capacity. Problems to ensure supply to all Italian consumers could occur – she added – only in the event of an exceptional cold spike by the end of March or of contextual disruptions on other import routes “.
In recent weeks “the government has mobilized to seek measures with a short-medium term impact with which to reduce dependence on gas imported from Russia, including with missions to other producing countries, including Qatar, Algeria, Angola, Congo, “which are estimated to lead to a total reduction of dependence by about 20 billion cubic meters per year”, reported Cingolani who also listed a series of possible interventions, starting with a possible increase in imports of Algerian gas.
It also aims to increase the regasification capacity of the country by leveraging further “floating units anchored near ports”, which would be “achievable in 12-18 months from obtaining the authorizations” for a total quantity of approximately 16-24 billion cubic meters. “The critical aspect now is to arrive in time to contract the few existing ships capable of carrying out this service, to which operators and governments of various countries have headed”, said the minister.
As for a “long-term perspective, starting from next winter, it would be necessary to completely replace 30 bcm of Russian gas with other sources. Although this is possible in a minimum horizon of 3 years, through the structural measures described below, for at least the next two winters it would be complex to ensure all supplies to the Italian system and it would be necessary to equip oneself with acceleration tools very effective for the investments they need “.