(Finance) – Already struggling with the unknowns related to the blaze of inflation and expensive energyPutin’s invasion of Ukraine bursts into the Italian public finances, the consequences of which on economic front are ready to make themselves heard in our home as well.
It is currently difficult to launch into certain forecasts, but there are too many variables that risk seriously compromising the good pace of growth, after the blow inflicted by the pandemic: a large part of the game will pass from the outcome of the negotiations in progress between Moscow and Kiev, but also from the perimeter of EU sanctions which is still being worked on and obviously from the response Russia which certainly will not stand by.
Net of what happened, the executive intends to confirm the deficit to 5.6% even with a growth target closer to 4% than the 4.7% estimated in October. It is certain that a worsening of the energy crisis in the context of sanctions against Russia risks undermining the cost structure of the projects PNRR called to give the impetus for a structural recovery of the country.
On the actual deficit this year advances a big steps also it spectrum of dear energy. In recent months, substantial intervention by the Government has allocated almost 15 billion to give some respite to businesses and families crushed by the almost unsustainable costs of bills. At least in the executive’s plans – probably destined to change – last week’s decree should have been the last. However, today it is impossible to remove from the field the hypothesis of further reinforcements which, however, would require a change of deficit targets.