As if he wanted to precipitate the rupture, after months of estrangement, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs has not minced his words, these last days, with regard to the authorities of Bamako. Jean-Yves le Drian denounced an “illegitimate” and “irresponsible” junta for sending home the Danish contingent of Operation Takuba, a coalition of special forces from a dozen European countries under French command, supposed to form the Malian army.
The response was quick. This Monday, January 31, Bamako gave 72 hours to the French ambassador, Joël Meyer, to pack up. An unprecedented thunderclap in the bilateral relationship. “It’s a crazy thing!”, Comments an observer from the region. “Normally, there are steps to follow before an ambassador is expelled.”
Except that lately, nothing seemed very orthodox between Paris and Bamako. Relations between these two de facto allies – since France still cooperates with the Malian armed forces against terrorists – went from bad to worse. The deployment of Wagner’s Russian mercenaries, numbering 600 according to the latest estimates from the tricolor staff, got the better of this household. Since then, the verbal escalation between the French government and the Malian junta, in power since the coup of August 18, 2020, seemed hopeless.
In the last episodes of this soap opera, the putschists, who advocated at the end of December the extension of the transition until 2027 before organizing elections, were indignant at the embargo applied, consequently, by the Economic Community of the States of West Africa (ECOWAS). Sanctions instrumentalised, according to them, by “extra-African powers”. In two words: France.
A dangerous overstatement
In the aftermath, the Malian colonels demanded the revision of the defense agreements linking Paris and Bamako, enough to call into question the entire architecture of the Barkhane anti-terrorist operation. And the junta was not done. On January 24, she summons the Danish soldiers taking part in Operation Takuba to leave Mali on the pretext that she has not given her consent to this deployment. Three days later, Denmark repatriates its men. Panic then spread to European capitals. Who will be the next to suffer such humiliation? For a few days, the rumor of a request for total withdrawal of Takuba by Bamako ran. The French general staff assures that it has not received any information to this effect.
But on January 27, the declarations of Jean-Yves le Drian judging that France could not “stay as it is” in Mali, already seemed to prepare the ground for a forced withdrawal. These remarks were used by the Malian soldiers as justifications for dismissing Ambassador Joël Meyer.
It remains to be seen what the consequences of this diplomatic “bombshell” will be. At the end of a meeting between the contributing countries of Takuba, on January 28 (i.e. three days before the announcement of the expulsion), the latter gave themselves two weeks of reflection on the future of this task force. They may have to decide sooner than expected. “If the Europeans leave Mali hastily, it will certainly be a boon for jihadist groups, as it will leave a vacuum in counter-terrorism operations,” notes Andrew Lebovich, senior researcher for the Africa program of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Not to mention the repercussions for the UN peacekeeping operation, MINUSMA, which cooperates with Barkhane on the ground.
The Malian junta, determined to maintain its positions in power, knows it: “the only politically profitable vein is the nationalist and sovereignist fiber”, according to Bakary Sambe, regional director of the Timbuktu Institute, based in Bamako. And too bad if this extremism poses the worst risks to the country…