It would have been problematic for Finland not to provide arms aid to Ukraine, as it could have made Finland look isolated in Putin’s eyes, says Tomas Ries from the Swedish National Defense College.
Finland’s decision to send weapons is a very bold move, says assistant professor at the Swedish National Defense College Tomas Ries.
Finland announced on Monday night that it would hand over 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 rounds of fire, 1,500 one-time shots and 70,000 pieces of combat food packaging to Ukraine.
The Finnish government announced the decision after, for example, Sweden announced that it would provide armed assistance to Ukraine. This is the first time Sweden has supplied weapons to an ongoing armed conflict abroad since the Winter War.
Similarly, Denmark, Germany and Belgium, for example, have time to report arms aid to Ukraine before Finland.
Tomas Ries assessed to that the decision was difficult for Finland.
– Finland can never afford to provoke Russia unnecessarily. At the same time, it can never look vulnerable in Russia’s eyes. This has been the cornerstone of Finland’s foreign policy for decades, Ries says in a telephone interview.
“A decision to the contrary could have isolated Finland from Europe”
– It may have been affected by the very strong reaction of the West against Putin. In Finland, it is thought that it would be as problematic not to send armed aid now as it is to send it, Ries says.
If Finland had decided not to send weapons, it could have isolated Finland from the rest of Europe, especially in the eyes of President Vladimir Putin.
– It could have made Putin think that Finland should be put under pressure when it wants to put pressure on the EU.
According to Ries, the second argument behind the arms aid decision could be a desire to show Russia that Finland is pursuing a policy on Russia precisely as part of the EU and not bilaterally.
The decision to provide military assistance would thus be a clear signal that Finland is working on a common front with other EU countries, even on difficult issues.
NATO focuses on the Baltics and Poland, Russia on the big countries in Europe
According to Ries, Finland’s decision to send armed aid to Ukraine does not change the way Finland is seen in the West.
This is due to the fact that Finland’s foreign policy is poorly known.
– Many people think that it is good, Finland also sends weapons, this is quite normal, Ries describes.
The eyes of the whole West are now primarily in Ukraine, he recalls.
NATO also focuses on considering the defense of the Baltic countries and Poland.
Finland’s decision to send armed aid to Ukraine may instead affect Putin’s thoughts on Finland.
– Finland’s position may become a little more dangerous, but it would also have happened if Finland had not sent weapons, Ries concludes.
On the other hand, if Russia decides to block arms transfers to Ukraine, for example, large countries such as Germany, France and Italy will focus on it, Ries estimates.
You can discuss 3.3. until 11 p.m.