(Finance) – The comfortable level of late winter storage that is currently expected in northwestern Europe and the downward revisions to the TTF gas price estimates for 2024 could leave the impression that Europe has resolved its energy crisis. “We do not agree with this point of view and we believe that the crisis is not over yet and what we have still a winter to face before mitigating the risk of extreme gas prices re-emerging,” reads research by Goldman Sachs.
According to analysts at the US investment bank, the structural deficit of European natural gas has yet to be fully resolved, with increased LNG supply not yet fully offsetting the loss of Russian imports. Therefore, European gas prices remain vulnerable to supply disruptions or increased demand, especially during the winter.
Starting in 2025however, there will be a significant increase in global LNG supply that will bring markets to a excess supply and, consequently, to a reduction in European gas and LNG prices, especially in the 2026-28 period.