Dismantled troll factories, images of searches of his apartments in the Russian press, repatriations of Russian mercenaries from the Central African Republic: no doubt, the empire of Evgueny Prigojine is being dismantled. Can he survive her? To answer this question, L’Express interviewed Denis Korotkov. This investigative journalist – formerly a police officer in Saint-Petersburg – was the first to investigate the Wagner group when he discovered the existence of Russian mercenaries in Syria. He then dissected the roles of Evgueni Prigojine and Dimitri Outkine, assumed neo-Nazi and one of the founders of Wagner, as well as their close links with the Kremlin.
After having worked for the Russian media Fontanka and Novaya Gazeta (declared a “foreign agent” in 2022), Denis Korotkov now works at the Center Folderinvestigative media funded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
L’Express: After his failed rebellion, are you surprised to see Evgueny Prigojine in Saint-Petersburg?
Denis Korotkov: He is a Russian citizen who is in a city in Russia, there is nothing surprising for the moment. But I don’t know if he will stay in Russia, if he will go to Belarus or to a country on the African continent. The possibilities are open.
The dismantling of the Prigozhin empire is underway. How will this happen, and how long will it take?
In reality, they don’t need to do much to dismantle Wagner. It is enough that the state contract with the Russian army, on which the Prigozhin empire was built, is terminated, and everything else will disintegrate on its own.
In the event of termination, the process promises to be complex, because the main contract dates from 2012, and it has been renewed each year. Only, the data is not public, and we cannot yet know if it has been abandoned or not, but it is very likely that it will be. Prigozhin eliminated himself. As a result, his media empire is already liquidated.
What will become of Wagner’s mercenaries?
Those who want to continue fighting will have to sign contracts with the armed forces of the Ministry of Defense, because they can no longer officiate in Wagner units. It is in fact simply impossible to preserve any structure of Wagner in Russia.
Currently, it is not known what will happen to those who remain in the Molkino camp. [NDLR : les camps d’entraînement de Wagner, dans la région de Krasnodar en Russie]because it is not yet clear whether or not they will go to Belarus, and when they will.
Can Wagner’s militias stay in Africa? ?
The question is whether they are really needed in Africa and who will pay them to carry out their activities. It is known that the income of local Prigojine businesses in Africa is not profitable enough to support the activities of the mercenaries, and there is no other way to pay them there.
Likewise, there is a huge logistical problem in Africa. The only transport corridor is Sudan, which is a very turbulent country at the moment. And again, it’s about to what extent the Russian government and the Ministry of Defense will support these companies there.
Can Putin keep Wagner without Prigozhin? Does that make sense?
No, the existence of this structure is impossible if it is not led by Prigojine himself, as it is a very personalized direction. Most of the command staff is very closely, and very personally, tied to Prigozhin. Furthermore, we have huge doubts as to whether the Wagner group will be able to exist on its own outside of its huge holdings, which involved many areas, ranging from food for the army, school meals, works construction and real estate business, as well as his media empire and his troll factories, etc…
I don’t think that the Wagner group can exist without the injections of money linked to the state contract with the Russian army, because only these liquidities give stability to the whole structure.