Chin high and brushing impeccable, Donald Trump will rarely have been more proud than this Sunday morning of October 27, 2019. In front of the cameras, the former American president had described in detail the death of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, the leader of Daesh , “killed at the bottom of a tunnel by American forces, whining and screaming the whole time”. “The defeat of the Islamic State is total”, then announced the one who was fighting against a dismissal procedure.
Nearly two years after these triumphant declarations, the scene is repeated in Washington. This Thursday, it was Joe Biden who announced the elimination of the leader of Daesh, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, killed in northern Syria by American soldiers.
An organization prepared for the death of its leaders
But if the mood is once again triumphant, the latest actions of the Islamic State (IS) organization show that it is still premature to claim victory. “The danger is to think that the counter-insurgency work is over and that IS is routed, warns Arthur Quesnay, researcher affiliated with the University of Paris-I Panthéon-Sorbonne and author of The Iraqi Civil War (2021, Karthala). But the Hassaké attack shows that the threat is there. In reality, the EI continues its dynamic of reconstruction and its mode of organization is planned to survive the elimination of its leader or its cells.
Just two weeks before his execution, al-Qurayshi staged Daesh’s most impressive attack since the fall of his caliphate in 2019. Around 30 fighters stormed Ghwayran prison in the north -eastern Syria, where nearly 5,000 jihadists were detained. After detonating two car bombs, fighting continued for a week between insurgents and prisoners on one side, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on the other, aided by American soldiers.
Results of the operation: 400 dead among the jihadists, nearly 150 among the guards and soldiers of the FDS. Above all, hundreds of Daesh fighters have fled, without their exact number being revealed. “Those who escaped are all hardened soldiers, fully dedicated to the jihadist cause,” said Nicholas Heras, security specialist at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington. The balance sheet would however be minimized by the coalition forces, explains a source on the spot, “because it is a huge failure for them, their credibility has taken a hit”. By killing the leader of the terrorist group on Thursday, the American army for its part sent a response largely up to the affront.
Daesh thrives on misery
More broadly, the attack on Ghwayran is indicative of the strategy followed by Daesh since the loss of its territories. With 10,000 members, including about a thousand soldiers, the organization survives in almost desert areas thanks to highly structured networks. “ISIS is rebuilding itself as a clandestine military organization, structured by a very effective intelligence service, “Amnie”, which monitors militants. This functioning allows it to build sanctuaries to regroup, recruit and train its fighters despite a large number of deaths, decrypts Arthur Quesnay. Their strategy aims to attack prisons to free their fighters, and to destabilize Iraq and Syria by attacking areas already fractured by many years of civil war in order to recreate an environment pushing the inhabitants to fall into the armed struggle.”
Attacking prisons remains Daesh’s priority, in order to free its cadres and reconstitute its forces. But the organization is not limited to this activity. “Gaining territory is its main objective, but they are still very far from it,” said Gregory Waters, IS specialist with the Counter Extremism Project in Washington. IS is in a phase of destabilization of political authorities, economic and security conditions in Syria and Iraq, because misery and chaos allow it to prosper and recruit more easily.”
Despite the euphoria of some Western diplomats, specialists are unanimous: even by cutting off a head of Daesh like al-Qurayshi, another will grow back just as quickly. And IS will be able to continue its reconstruction work. “We have the mission to destroy Daesh militarily, but it is impossible to put an end to an insurgency without political and social measures, without lifting the poorest out of misery, without building infrastructures and without reliable institutions, summarizes Gregory Waters. As long as the western coalition remains in northern Syria, the IS will not be able to seize territory. But as soon as the Americans leave, Daesh will take advantage of the chaos to take several cities, recruit and attack more beautiful.” This time, the West is warned.