Another five years with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP party or a fresh start with challenger Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the CHP party and the National Alliance? Regardless of who is elected in Turkey, the country’s leadership will face severe trials in the coming years.
Here are seven questions that will determine Turkey’s future.
The economy
In October, Turkey’s inflation was 85 percent. It has decreased somewhat since then, but together with an undervalued currency, high food prices and even higher housing costs, inflation has lowered the standard of living of the Turkish population. Even school fees, which are very important to the middle class that often supported Erdogan, have gone through the roof. Economic reforms will be needed, not least to bring down inflation and increase foreign investment. The opposition has plans for the economy, but even incumbent President Erdogan will have to implement measures, sooner or later.
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The corruption
Much of the deteriorating economy can be blamed on widespread corruption, credit to private banks and cronyism – something that has worsened during Erdogan’s years in power, according to the opposition. The issue is also related to the handling of this year’s earthquake disaster, which for many Turks puts their finger on how bad things are.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses tens of thousands of supporters at an election rally in Ankara.
The aftermath of the earthquake
The severe earthquake in eastern Turkey in February left millions of people homeless, which was felt throughout Turkey. Many, no one knows how many, have fled the area and are living with relatives or in temporary housing in the cities to the west. The government has received sharp criticism for its handling of the situation and the reconstruction is expected to take many years. Widespread corruption is believed to be behind the collapse of many houses. Few have been held accountable for this.
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The refugee situation
Millions of Syrian refugees, who have arrived in the country since the war broke out, also live in the earthquake-affected areas. The refugees’ presence is also felt in western and central Turkey. They have been a hot election issue, several parties have promised to bring them back.
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West or East?
Under President Erdogan, Turkey has moved eastwards, away from Europe and the EU and towards both Russia and the Middle East. If re-elected, Erdogan will continue to try to mediate between Russia and the West. If the opposition wins, they have said they will reconnect with the EU, albeit not close to membership.
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Opposition presidential candidate, CHP leader Kemal Kiliçdaroglu during an election rally in Tekirdag.
The 2024 local elections
The winner of the election will have to deal with the crumbling economy. But it is important not to go too hard with the necessary reforms. Turkey holds local elections in April next year, and any measures that short-term worsen the residents’ economy risk bringing down the governing parties then.
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NATO and Sweden
Sweden’s application to the NATO defense alliance and Turkey’s veto against it is not an issue that has been high in the Turkish election campaign. But the alliance that wins must discuss the matter with both NATO and the US. Erdogan has not announced exactly what he intends to do after the election, but it is unlikely that he will continue to block Swedish membership after the Swedish terrorism legislation comes into effect on June 1. The opposition will most likely approve Sweden.