Are power cuts to be expected this winter?

1669928486 Are power cuts to be expected this winter

ELECTRICAL LOAD SHEDDING. “High” voltage risks on the electricity network this winter could lead to load shedding, a last resort solution to avoid blackouts.

[Mis à jour le 1er décembre 2022 à 16h32] With the onset of winter and in the midst of the energy crisis, the government “does not rule out having to resort to solutions including temporary cuts in certain places”. The possible use of electrical load shedding can be read between the lines of the speech by Olivier Véran, spokesperson for the government invited by BFMTV-RMC on December 1. “But we’re not there yet,” he immediately temporized. The executive is only at the first stage, which is the communication of the procedures to be put in place in the event of a load shedding. On the first day of December, a circular was thus issued to the prefect detailing the sequence of events before, during and after a power cut.

Electrical load shedding is considered by the government as an “exceptional” measure taken only after the exhaustion or the finding of the insufficiency of other means including behaviors to promote energy sobriety. It is also the last step before the tension on the electricity network plunges the whole of France into a blackout. The electricity transport network (RTE) is confident about the uselessness of resorting to load shedding during the month of December, but the situation looks more critical for the start of 2023 and if it “is very tense on the electrical system” load shedding will become necessary. These punctual cuts will not be unexpected but well announced and limited to a duration of two hours, or even a little more depending on the time of the restart of the current. It will be possible to anticipate cuts linked to load shedding by monitoring national electricity consumption provided by Ecowatt, RTE’s platform. A red signal will make it possible to predict three days in advance of a possible load shedding which will be confirmed locally the day before the power cut, at 5 p.m. at the latest. These red signals, or only orange ones (for a tense but a priori uninterrupted electricity system), issued three days before the situation becomes more complicated, will also make it possible to avoid load shedding by adopting eco-gestures, measures aimed at limiting the power consumption or staggering it to relieve strain on the network. Since September the government has been encouraging the French to resort to energy sobriety measures and the invitation should be more and more pressing.

Unavoidable power outages this winter?

Opinions still diverge on whether or not recourse to electrical load shedding is inevitable. The government insists on recalling that if the necessary measures are taken to resort to occasional power cuts, the use of this “last resort” solution remains hypothetical. The electricity transmission network (RTE) for its part prefers to rely on forecasts and announce a high risk “of seeing electrical load shedding triggered. Forecasts which depend both on French energy production, which is significantly reduced due to the shutdowns of several power plants due to social unrest and delays in maintenance work, and weather forecasts including possible cold spells. “If we have a normally cold or very cold winter , we will not be able to do without massive load shedding. The load shedding capacities will not be enough” had already, like others, estimated secretary of the central CSE of the energy company EDF, Philippe Page Le Mérou, in October with Reuters.

Load shedding is a voluntary power cut on part of the electrical network. It intervenes in a very particular context, when the electrical situation is extremely tense on the electrical network. Indeed, load shedding is only implemented “to preserve the integrity of the electrical system”, indicates EDF on its website. By cutting off the electricity, we can thus deal with problems on a larger scale, and in particular network breakdowns which can occur in the event of large and sudden demand. Necessary, they are generally of short duration. Initially, power cuts should only concern businesses, explained Élisabeth Borne, the Prime Minister, on several occasions. However, the head of government does not rule out short-term cuts for individuals.

How is the electrical load shedding organised?

The circular sent to the prefectures by the government on December 1 specifies the conditions under which power cuts will be organised, if necessary, during the winter. The executive ensures that the cuts will not be unexpected since the Ecowatt signal will make it possible to anticipate needs. The risk of load shedding will therefore be announced three days in advance in the event of a red signal and an effective power cut will be confirmed the day before at 5 p.m. at the latest.

The announcement of electrical load shedding will specify the extent of the area deprived of power, which will always be a minority in a department. The load shedding time slot will also be indicated: the cut will occur during peak hours either in the morning between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m. or in the evening between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. RTE also recalls that load shedding will be “distributed” and “smoothed” over the whole of French territory – with the exception of Corsica which depends on the Italian electricity network and its own energy production – so as to never load shedding the same area twice.

A drop in voltage corresponds to a reduction in the network voltage. Thus, the government has hinted that it could make a request to RTE (Electricity Transport Network). On August 30, Agnès Pannier-Runacher had mentioned this possibility on the air of France Inter. According to the minister, it would be necessary “to go from 230 volts to 220 volts. You don’t see it”. As she recalls, “it saves a lot of electricity”. This should not affect the condition of your appliances. Indeed, your home is considered “poorly supplied if an average minimum of 207 volts is recorded for ten minutes”, indicates the guarantor of the public service of the distribution of Vendée energies, Sydev. Other than a lamp that shines a little less or a phone charger that takes longer to fill your battery, you shouldn’t see the difference. However, if the voltage drop persists over time, it could have an impact on the longevity of your electronic devices.

Load shedding or voltage drop in France this winter? These two options are not totally ruled out by the government. And if it is more likely that we will have to deal with a voltage drop in the electricity network, the risk of load shedding is very present. In this case, the power cuts will not affect people in difficulty, indicated Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, at the microphone of France Inter September 1: “Previously, we identify sensitive users [hôpitaux, défense nationale, sécurité, industries à risque]to make sure that we don’t cut off the electricity to someone who has a medical device.”

Concerns about possible load shedding are gaining strength, especially about the consequences. Christel Heydemann, CEO of Orange, said during a hearing before the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee that these power cuts could have serious consequences for telecom networks. “It is illusory to imagine that in the event of load shedding, we will be able to maintain continuous service for all French people. Mobile services, if they are switched off in a geographical area for two hours, there will be no access to emergency number services for a while,” she warned before the Senate. Indeed, telecom relay antennas depend on electricity, recalled the director of France in remarks including The Express echoes.

Relay antennas are not among the priority sites spared from load shedding listed by an order dating back to July 5, 1990, including hospitals or prisons. A situation deplored by French operators. According to information fromEuropean 1these different operators are in discussion with the government and the prefects to “preserve 112, the only emergency number compatible with all the antennas of all operators”.

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