Like a dangerous string of pearls, Iran has in recent days attacked northern Iraq, Syria and now most recently – and most surprisingly – Pakistan. Quite expectedly, the latter nuclear weapon country responded by bombing inside the Iranian border.
On both sides, children have been affected.
The border between Iran and Pakistan, especially the one that runs along the giant province of Baluchistan, has been sensitive for many years. Baluchistan traditionally runs through Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. The area is difficult to access in all countries and is often used for smuggling weapons and drugs. Even in periods, people are on their way with the hope of a better life. But it is also, above all in Pakistan and Iran, an area that opposes the country’s leadership.
Largest province receives the least help
In Iran, the Baluch in the province of Sistan have been responsible for a large part of the protests that are moving like uneven waves across Iran. Consequently, many Baluchs were also hanged as punishment.
In Pakistan, the poor province is one of the largest, but also one of the provinces that receives the least help. There are separatist groups that want Baluchistan to become independent.
It is thus in that demographic that both Iran and Pakistan released their bombs.
Iran says it struck the resistance group Jaish Ul Adl and Pakistan claims it attacked the separatist group Sarmachar. And while that has led to diplomatic frostiness, both countries also make it clear that it is not the country as such they are attacking, only the groups.
But can this escalate and how does it affect the region – the wider Middle East – but the currently bleeding heart Israel/Gaza?
Unpredictable
Both Iran and Pakistan are unpredictable and difficult to predict. The recent bombings in several different territories show that Iran wants to advance its positions and signal to the United States that it can be counted on. They probably have no major interest in continuing to quarrel with Pakistan. But Pakistan, which has its own problems with the Taliban in Afghanistan, always India, and also a messy election in February, cannot just let a few Iranian drone attacks pass through its borders. It would make them look weak, not least in the flammable atmosphere that prevails.
China has already signed up as a peacemaker in the situation, unsurprisingly as parts of their giant project of a new Silk Road pass through the area. But what speaks the most that the situation will hopefully calm down, is that both countries have chosen to bomb areas that rarely get any attention. A particularly cynical way of showing the muscles in world politics.