Analysis: “A shock election for the small parties”

Under the slogan “Stronger Europe, stronger Sweden”, the Liberals go to the polls on things like legislating against nuclear power shutdowns and changing the krona to the euro pronto.

An important part of the election strategy is to make visible the dividing lines against SD. Ahead of the EU elections, the Tidö parties agree to disagree and the “conduct clause” in the Tidö agreement has Johan Pehrson (L) put on break.

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  • The ambition is to convince the voters that the Liberals in parliament are pursuing true liberal politics, free from Tidö compromises. But for the voters, the division is probably not crystal clear. The risk is that the collaboration with the SD scares away some of the well-educated metropolitan voters who usually take the Liberals into both the Riksdag and Parliament.

    “So it’s up to the evidence”

    Even the Christian Democrats have a scary election ahead of them. At this time before the last EU election, the party had double-digit support, now they are not even safely above the barrier.

    No danger, says Ebba Busch (KD) and refers to the fact that KD usually makes good election campaigns. The only problem is that in the EU elections there are not the support votes that usually save the party in the Riksdag.

    In addition, the party is challenged this time by Folklistan, which can probably attract some potential KD voters. It is therefore up to proof, not least for Ebba Busch herself. After last year’s turbulence around the EU list, the stakes are extra high where the party leadership may very well be in the pot.

    The election campaign did not start in earnest

    Muharrem Demirok (C) risks the same fate. A poor result could trigger a discussion about whether he is the right man to lead the party in the next election.

    What the small parties can take comfort in is that the election campaign has not started in earnest yet. Which issues will dominate towards the end and which parties benefit from it remains to be seen. In addition, according to the election researchers in Gothenburg, nearly half of the voters make up their minds in the last week.

    In short: There is not far left, but a lot can happen with public opinion until the election.

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