The Iranian drone attack is the first direct attack from Iran on Israel, and its consequences are unpredictable.
WASHINGTON. While the Iranian planes were still traveling towards Israel early Sunday morning, many questions were open. The most significant of them is whether the attack is the start of a major war between Israel and Iran.
Israel and Iran have been striking each other for years in indirect ways, such as cyber attacks and through other militia groups.
The Iranian strike is in response to an Israeli strike that killed several members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard earlier in April.
However, Iran’s Sunday morning drone strike was a significant escalation, as Iran has never directly struck Israel from its own soil before.
In particular, these three factors determine whether the conflict immediately escalates as a result of the strike.
1. Will the strike kill the Israelis?
With the planes still on their way to Israel, it was unclear how significant the strike would be.
Some of the US military experts estimate that a large part of the drones would be shot down before they hit their targets.
Some speculated that the drones were just a hoax, and that Iran would continue its attack with missiles.
Iran’s UN embassy wrote in the message service X that the attack would have ended even before the drones had hit Israel.
Even if it were true and the strike was over, its possible destruction will have a decisive influence on the expansion of the conflict.
2. How hard will Israel take revenge?
Israel swore before the attack that it would respond to the Iranian attack.
– We are ready for all situations, both to defend and to attack, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday.
Even if the damage from the Iranian strike is minimal, a war could break out as Israel responds to the Iranian strike and the cycle of revenge escalates.
3. Is the US accidentally overpromising?
The United States has announced that it stands “iron firm” in support of Israel.
Many US politicians considered Iran to be the real culprit behind the October 7th terrorist attack in Israel and then called for military action against Iran. On Saturday, the first politicians again rushed to call for strikes against Iran.
The United States may drift into the war as a supporter of Israel as well, if a war breaks out between Israel and Iran. Then Iran might, for example, attack US military bases in the region to prevent them from being used to support Israel.