The Republicans see in the appointment of Gabriel Attal to Matignon a chance to carry more weight in the 2027 presidential election. But the strategy envisaged is not without risk.
The appointment of Gabriel Attal to Matignon should not upset relations between the elected representatives of the majority and those of the right. If Eric Ciotti, president of the Les Républicains party, appreciates the new Prime Minister more than he did with Elisabeth Borne, he believes that the young politician will not revolutionize the way of governing or negotiating with the opposition to complete his relative majority in Parliament. Moreover, the good understanding between the two men will not be synonymous with complacency on the vote on texts and other bills. “Attal is pure Macron, tone on tone, he will do “at the same time” with, from time to time, poaching left and right”, consequently “no question of global agreement nor benevolent attitude, it will be case by case” according to the reforms submitted to Parliament, warns a senior LR executive in the columns of Point.
If the change of Prime Minister does not seem to be a subject for the Republicans in the short term, it could do their business with a view to 2027. At least that is what Eric Ciotti seems to believe who sees in Gabriel Attal a rival to Edouard Philippe to succeed Emmanuel Macron during the next presidential campaign. But how would the young Prime Minister play into the hands of the right for the 2027 deadline?
Edouard Philippe outdated and Laurent Wauquiez acclaimed
Trends are already emerging for the next presidential election and while Elysian ambitions are attributed to Edouard Philippe, the popularity of the mayor of Le Havre with right-wing voters worries the boss of LR who wants to push the candidacy of Laurent Wauquiez. And for good reason, the former Prime Minister is ahead of the president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region in the opinion of LR voters, according to the latest barometers such as that ofIpsos for Les Echos published in December 2023.
But now, Gabriel Attal is close behind and sometimes manages to dethrone Edouard Philippe in the opinion of the French and in that of right-wing voters according to the same studies. The Prime Minister is the second most popular political figure among the French with 39% positive opinion (+1%) just behind the boss of Horizons with 41% positive opinion but showing a drop of 3%. according to the Elabe barometer for Les Echos published in January. The previous month, the positions were reversed: Attal in front with 40% and Philippe second with 39%. This lead of the new Prime Minister was confirmed among right-wing voters (63% against 61% in third and fourth place behind Xavier Bertrand and Nicolas Sarkozy). Laurent Wauquiez closed the top 5 with 60% positive opinions.
If Gabriel Attal gradually managed to steal the spotlight from Edouard Philippe, he could establish himself as Macron’s successor in 2027 and remove the Norman mayor from the race, thus leaving more space for the LR candidate. The possible candidacy of the young head of government adept at “at the same time” for the presidential election is considered less dangerous for the right than that of Edouard Philippe located on the center right of the political spectrum. “One more candidate in the Macronist swamp, that suits us very well!” summarizes a close friend of Laurent Wauquiez at Point.
Part of the right seduced by Attal
The right therefore sees an advantage in the arrival of Attal in Matignon, but it runs the risk of losing some of its elected officials on the way to 2027. If on the one hand, certain Republicans refuse to get along with the one whom They describe him as the copy, the “mini-me”, of Emmanuel Macron, others on the contrary are seduced by the 34-year-old politician who advances on subjects dear to the right. “He is doing everything we wanted to do at school,” a big name in the party slipped into the newspaper when another praised a Prime Minister with “crazy talent, [qui] did it flawlessly”. A last one went so far as to estimate that it would be “very easy for Attal to go and peck at personalities on the right”.