A fine connoisseur of the Middle East, Ghaith Al-Omari is a former Palestinian negotiator (from 1999 to 2006) and ex-adviser to Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority. A committed player in the peace process, he was notably present at the Camp David summit in 2000 and the Taba summit in 2001, which brought together Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat. Now a consultant at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, this lawyer specializing in human rights says he is worried about a worsening of the crisis between Israel and the Palestinians, after the terrible Hamas attack on October 7. And an extension of the conflict. According to this expert, once the war is over, the Palestinians in Gaza, who will continue to bear the brunt of IDF reprisals, could “turn” against the terrorist organization. Interview.
L’Express: Will the Palestinian people be the other victim of Hamas’s appalling attack on Israel?
Ghaith Al-Omari: In my opinion, yes, the Palestinian people will be the other big loser from this tragedy. Hamas carried out this terrorist attack knowing full well that Israel would react very violently. The response has already started and it will intensify. On a humanitarian level, this retaliatory operation will cause numerous victims and injuries; and infrastructure will be destroyed.
But the Palestinians will also lose politically. The nature of this attack is very different from what we know. Hamas went from house to house, intentionally killing civilians. The Palestinians will be reduced to their image of terrorists of the 1970s and lose diplomatic support, in the West and even from certain Arab countries, as evidenced by the reaction of the United Arab Emirates.
The only one that could gain is Hamas itself. But the Palestinian people and their cause will be sacrificed.
How do you think the feelings of the Palestinian population towards Hamas will evolve?
It’s a complex question. I think that initially, the population of Gaza will rally around Hamas. In the short term, Hamas will therefore gain popularity. In times of war, people always rally around the leaders. However, once the fighting is over, and the Palestinian population becomes aware of the extent of the destruction, the uselessness of this drama, and the fact that Hamas has no political solution to offer, I think that the inhabitants of Gaza will turn against this terrorist organization. Will this change anything? Not really, because Hamas governs through oppression.
The popularity of Hamas in the West Bank could, however, increase, because the Palestinians in this region should not suffer the direct consequences of this situation.
Did the West and its allies make a mistake in thinking that the Palestinian question was no longer as important?
Yes, absolutely. This Palestinian issue had been marginalized, and unfortunately it has re-entered the agenda in an extremely negative way. The West is not the only one targeted. It is also a signal sent to the Arab world to affirm that the Palestinian question will not disappear, that it must remain central.
In any case, the discussions which took place between Saudi Arabia and Israel for a normalization of their relations will be frozen for a long period. Countries signatory to the Abraham Accords with Israel [Le Maroc, les Emirats Arabes Unis, le Bahreïn et le Soudan, NDLR] are also today in a very difficult position.
Is Hamas’ objective to completely torpedo the current rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel and even Abraham’s agreements ?
I am not sure that this is the main objective, which, in my opinion, is internal: to take leadership of the Palestinian cause. But I’m sure that was part of Hamas’s calculation. It should also be borne in mind that Hamas has become closer to Iran in recent months – they had been very close about 20 years ago, but a crisis erupted between them at the time of the Arab Spring. Iran considers the current situation a victory: in addition to undermining the Abraham Accords and the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it allows it to project its influence into a new arena.
How did the Palestinians experience the signing of the Abraham Accords, where the Palestinian question was relegated to the background?
The Palestinians felt abandoned, and even betrayed. Whereas historically, they had the feeling that the Palestinian question was central in the Arab world.
This is why both the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian opinion in general are very opposed to the Abraham Accords. The Palestinian Authority was involved to some extent in the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement, but it was not enthusiastic.
Today, Palestinians feel like they are once again at the center of events. I fear, however, that in six months things will return to the way they were before this war. I don’t think this war will create any strategic change on this point.
What was the nature of the financial promises made by Saudi Arabia to the Palestinians?
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has stopped funding the Palestinian Authority. Riyadh believed that the Palestinian leaders were corrupt, that the Palestinian question was no longer so important. A Palestinian delegation visited Saudi Arabia at the end of September. Mohammed bin Salman had promised significant funding in the event of a breakthrough between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
What role did Iran play in the Hamas attack?
We don’t know the details. But we know that there have been numerous meetings between Hamas and Iran in recent months in Beirut. They met under the auspices of Hezbollah.
We also know that Iran has publicly stated that it supports the Hamas operation. Was the support operational, political, financial? I do not know. It is too early to tell. But Iran is taking advantage of the situation.
After this killing, is there a way to emerge from this chaos and embark on the path to peace between Israel and Palestine?
I fear that in the short term the situation will become much more serious. I don’t see how Israel could not launch a ground operation in Gaza. This is going to take a long time. But I hope that once the operation is over, Israel will reconsider its policies, and seek to strengthen the Palestinian Authority while weakening Hamas. In recent years, under Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel has allowed Qatar to pay $30 million per month to territory controlled by Hamas, from which the latter has benefited. And at the same time, he has implemented policies that undermine the Palestinian Authority. This body has many problems, but it is not a terrorist organization.
Do you think Hezbollah could attack northern Israel?
It’s a real possibility. I think that in the short term, and it has already started to do so, Hezbollah will allow the Palestinian factions in South Lebanon to attack Israel. A few months ago, some had already fired rockets at Israel from Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah responded that they did not know – which is of course implausible….
One of the reasons the United States sent its aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford to the Eastern Mediterranean is to send a signal to Hezbollah and Iran not to get involved. Will this be enough? We don’t know anything about it. Everything will depend on the calculations of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and Ali Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader.