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Nearly a third of Ile-de-France residents, or 3.7 million people, are considered very vulnerable to extreme heat due to the urban areas where they live and other social parameters (age, income), according to a study communicated to AFP on Wednesday.
Among these people, who represent 31% of the most populated region of France, the Paris Region Institute (IPR) lists 845,000 “sensitive” because of their age (under 5 or over 65). More than 6 million Ile-de-France residents, i.e. half of the region, “resides in a block with a potentially medium to strong urban heat island effect (HHI) at night during the summer period“, estimates the IPR which compiled data from 2022, adding weighting elements from the 2003 heat wave.
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The further one goes towards the center of the Parisian metropolis, the higher this proportion rises: from 21% in the outer suburbs, to 63% in the inner suburbs and up to… 99% in inner Paris. But “it’s not 99% of the Parisian population that is vulnerable, you have to look at the other parameters”, explains to AFP Erwan Cordeau, climate specialist at the IPR.
The further you go towards the center of the Parisian metropolis, the higher this proportion rises: from 21% in the outer suburbs, to 63% in the inner suburbs and up to… 99% in inner Paris. But and people with urban heat” (age, air pollution) and “the difficulty of coping” (income, access to the health system and green spaces). On this last criterion, the capital is almost free of red zones, unlike a vast triangle to the north between Aubervilliers, Saint-Denis and Le Bourget, the most exposed part of Seine-Saint-Denis.
Also, and even if the west of Paris, which is older and sometimes less well endowed with green spaces, concentrates more critical blocks than the north-east of the capital, which is more popular and younger, the study does not take into account “what population, mostly on low incomes, gets stuck in the summer and doesn’t go on vacation”emphasizes Mr. Cordeau. “The city does not have the same socio-demography at these extreme critical periods”, he adds.
Ile-de-France is relatively spared by the current heat wave raging in Europe, where the warming is, according to experts, twice as fast as the world average.