– The France-Germany axis is not in the best shape. It might need some sort of health check.
This is how the head of the Brussels-headquartered Carnegie Europe think tank diagnoses the state of the power duo that has determined the direction of EU development for decades Rosa Balfour.
There are grounds for the causes of Axel’s vital functions. the president of France Charles de Gaulle and the German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer signed the Elysée Agreement turned 60 years old at the end of January.
Akseli started at that time, but the 60-year inspection is in order, because many things have changed in Europe since then.
The Cold War ended, the Soviet Union broke up, a large number of Eastern European countries have applied for both EU and NATO membership, and to top it all off, Britain left the EU.
The change is now culminating in the fact that Russia attacked Ukraine and there is a war on the edge of the continent.
It is the war in Ukraine and the relationship with Russia that have shown that the Franco-German axis has not particularly sensitively sensed the mental movements of its own citizens or broader European public opinion.
Germany has taken action and France has wanted to talk.
The nations of Europe turned overnight to show their solidarity with Ukraine and their approval of its president to Volodymyr Zelenskyi. People have wanted to give Ukraine both humanitarian and military aid. European unanimity in, for example, sanctions against Russia has been puzzling.
– Public opinion has remained strongly on the side of actions against Russia, even though, for example, the prices of energy and other living costs have become more expensive, says Rosa Balfour.
Germany froze to death because its relationship with the world is determined through the economy. It bent to sanctions against Russia only after the rest of Europe.
Germany has been very dependent on Russian fossil energy. It has taken a long time to close the gas tap.
Germany hides behind myths
The delivery of military equipment to Ukraine, which is fighting for its freedom, has also taken its own time. In this matter, German time has stopped in World War II.
The weapons are associated in the German collective memory with the wars it started. That’s why Leopard tanks were prisoners of the past for a long time. Germany moved to deliver them to Ukraine only after the United States and Britain had first shown the way.
– The rest of Europe has been waiting for Germany to take its position, but Germany has been very reserved. It is due to history and the fact that Germany hides behind the myths associated with its size and power, says Balfour.
For decades, Germany swore in its name that Russia could be tied to the rest of Europe through the economy. Last year changed this basic regulation of German foreign policy. Finally, the delivery of weapons to Ukraine broke the last taboo associated with this long line.
Still, the German government’s hesitation regarding Ukraine is a very big problem, according to Carnegie Europe director Rosa Balfour, because German public opinion is strongly on Ukraine’s side.
– This is like directly from Russia’s wishes, because it wants disunity in Europe.
The European Council is a researcher at the think tank Foreign Relations (ECFR). Pawel Zerka he too sees that the France-Germany axis is still important.
– But the axis has changed. France has been more vocal about it and Germany, as usual, has been slow.
Chancellor of Germany By Olaf Scholz laziness has been viewed with amusement in Europe, but not by the French president Even Emmanuel Macron the line regarding the war in Ukraine has not pleased everyone in Europe.
Macron has wanted to maintain a negotiating relationship with the Russian president to Vladimir Putin. Many European comments have pointed out that Putin does not want to negotiate, but to play for time. On the other hand, Macron has been seen as only embracing publicity.
Head of the Department of History at the Sciences Po University of Paris Sabine Dullin points out that Germany and France’s willingness to negotiate with Russia has aroused special irritation in Poland and the Baltic countries.
– It must be remembered that it was the Poles and the Balts who suffered from the colonization of the Soviet Union, says Sabine Dullin.
He also sees that the France-Germany axis is now facing change.
– It is not at all certain that this axis will continue to be a pillar of European development, Dullin estimates.
Rosa Balfour says that the relative importance of the Franco-German axis in Europe is no longer the same as before. The duo’s joint play has guided European integration and is still necessary in it, as the EU now already has 27 member countries.
– The French-German axis alone is not enough now. Other countries are also needed. EU leadership is now more decentralized. It lives according to the issues at hand, says Balfour.
Europe’s balance of power is moving east
The war in Ukraine shifted the balance of power in the whole of Europe.
Polish ECFR researcher Pawel Zerka says that the importance of his own country has clearly increased. Poland has received a lot of recognition for handling the crisis. It has provided military aid to Ukraine and taken in millions of Ukrainians fleeing the war.
Poland has also been steadfast in relation to Russia.
– Poland has been saying for years that Russia cannot be trusted.
That’s why the Poles have their own fears about Germany and France. Axel is suspected of being ready to warm up relations with Russia as soon as the guns sometimes fall silent.
– Will the relations even warm to the point that energy would be bought from Russia again, Zerka asks.
Researchers estimate that the balance of power in Europe has moved from Central Europe towards Eastern Central Europe. The zone from Poland to the Baltics is looked at with special enthusiasm – and the area further north, i.e. Finland and Sweden.
– The application of Finland and Sweden to NATO reinforces the idea that the balance of power is now in motion, says Sabine Dullin.
Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, also estimates that Europe’s gaze is now increasingly towards the east and northeast. According to him, it does not necessarily automatically mean that the center of power will shift there.
– Other factors shaping Europe are also in motion after Britain left the EU.
According to Balfour, for example, the economy and the green transition are big issues in terms of the future balance of power. In Europe, perhaps we will move to a distributed patchwork model in terms of power instead of a power center thinking.