For his first official trip since the beginning of the invasion of his country by Russia on February 24, Volodymyr Zelensky landed in the United States on Wednesday. A historic visit during which the Ukrainian president will be received at the White House, before addressing the American Congress. The way for Joe Biden to reaffirm his support for Ukraine, as the country prepares to enter its tenth month of war.
“This visit is a strong symbol insofar as the United States is the first supplier of arms to Ukraine, notes General (2S) Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Review. It sends the message to Russia that the Americans will not let the Ukrainians down and that Putin should not rely on attrition.”
On the occasion of this trip of “a few short hours”, according to Washington, new aid should be officially announced. In particular the release of an envelope of 2 billion dollars, including, among other things, the delivery of a Patriot anti-aircraft battery. A medium-range surface-to-air missile system, the Patriot is designed to detect and intercept any aerial threat up to 160 kilometers away.
Two opposing models
The opportunity for the tenant of the White House to give substance to one of his priorities on the international scene. “For Joe Biden, the war in Ukraine is a symbol of the fight between the democratic and authoritarian models that he theorized from his campaign, underlines Jean-Eric Branaa, lecturer at the University Paris-II-Panthéon-Assas and author of geopolitics of the United States (PUF, 2022). By placing the defense of democracy at the heart of his foreign policy, he intends to send a strong signal to the rest of the world: and in particular to China and its territorial ambitions on Taiwan.
To this day, the United States remains – by far – the leading arms supplier to Ukraine. Since the beginning of the conflict, Washington has already paid nearly 50 billion dollars in aid to kyiv, including more than 20 billion dedicated specifically to armaments. For decisive effect on the battlefield. The delivery of 20 Himars multiple rocket launchers since this summer has enabled Ukrainian forces to acquire unprecedented deep strike capabilities. De facto playing a key role in the success of the counter-offensives led by kyiv in the Kharkiv region at the end of the summer, then in Kherson this fall.
A Himars precision rocket launcher of the type granted to Ukraine, on March 06, 2022 in Saudi Arabia
© / afp.com/Fayez Nureldine
“For the United States, like the Europeans, a victory for Russia in Ukraine would constitute a major defeat, points out General Pellistrandi. Already because this manifest violation of international law is intolerable, but also because from then on other countries such as Moldova, Poland or the Baltic countries, would find themselves directly threatened by Moscow.” So that, for the time being, Washington remains willing to put its hand in the wallet. The annual spending bill unveiled by Congress on Tuesday contains $45 billion in new emergency funds for Ukraine, $7 billion more than the Biden administration had requested.
Relative consensus
“Apart from the most right-wing fringe of the Republican Party, the American Congress remains fairly unanimous on the need to continue to support Ukraine militarily, notes Jean-Eric Branaa. Even with a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, it that is unlikely to change.” According to a poll published in December by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, two-thirds of Americans favor maintaining economic and military support for Ukraine. A rate that reaches 76% among Democratic voters and 55% among Republicans.
And for good reason: this support for Ukraine is also seen in Washington as a means of weakening Russia without the direct involvement of American troops. “It is clear that this is part of the explanations, judge General Pellistrandi. The objective is to reduce the power of harm of Moscow, already militarily, but also politically in the longer term.” During a meeting with senior Russian officers on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin promised to increase the capacities of his military forces and indicated that he planned to increase the number of the Russian army to 1.5 million soldiers. For her part, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said the day before that the United States stood ready to support Ukraine “as long as necessary”.
And to respond to kyiv’s increasingly pressing demands for sophisticated armaments? “The next step, if there were to be one, would be the delivery of modern offensive systems such as combat tanks or long-range missiles, says Marc Chassillan, a former military engineer now a specialist defense consultant. ” However, the Americans have taken care so far to limit the risk of escalation of the conflict, which would become much more difficult with the delivery of this type of equipment.” Despite its unfailing support, it is not certain that Washington will not cross this not.