According to Käihkö, there have been many disagreements among researchers and analysts about whether defending Bahmut was smart or whether the city should have been withdrawn earlier.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi says the news agency AP in an interview (you move to another service)that a defeat in Bahmut could force him to compromise or it could affect Ukraine’s international support.
Aleksanteri Institute Visiting researcher Ilmari Käihkö believes that the message conveyed by Zelenskyi’s interview is a defense of his own political decision to hold on to the city of Bahmut.
There have been many disagreements among international researchers and analysts about whether defending Bahmut was smart or whether the city should have been withdrawn earlier, Käihkö says.
– Zelenskyi has created an image of Bahmut as an “invincible fortress” and thus politicized the fight for this ruined city, which has no great strategic importance, says Käihkö.
Bahmut can influence Ukraine’s future counterattack
In an interview, Zelenskyi described the war as “a pie containing pieces of victory” where “you can’t lose steps”. Käihkö, on the other hand, does not believe that Bahmut would be a decisive battle in terms of the overall picture of the war or even the continuation of Ukraine’s international support.
– In this situation, we can only expect the start of a major offensive in Ukraine.
The concern has been that if Ukraine invests too many resources in the defense of Bahmut, it would affect the major offensive that will probably start during the spring and summer.
– The unfortunate interpretation of Zelensky’s interview is that Ukraine has invested too many resources in Bahmut, a major attack has been jeopardized, and even international parties are already preparing for the fact that there will be no major regional liberations.
However, Käihkö stresses that the horror scenario is unlikely to come true.
– The assumption is that Ukraine will be able to at least somewhat liberate its territories currently occupied by Russia.
However, the pressure on Ukraine is increasing all the time, because the Ukrainians must be able to constantly show that the war is going in a positive direction from their point of view. There are big stakes in the coming major attack, Käihkö adds.
– If the counterattack is not successful and Ukraine is not able to militarily liberate its territories in the future either, some kind of compromise must be found.
Zelenskyi wonders if the edge of the home front will last
Käihkö considers it surprising that Zelenskyi spoke in the interview about his concern regarding the will to fight on the home front.
– This is surprising because he has emphasized unity. Zelenskyi seems to be afraid that a possible withdrawal from Bahmut would demoralize the Ukrainians, who could then demand to agree to a compromise with Russia.
Zelenskyi has said that far from the front lines “we are starting to get used to war”. Because of this, soldiers living and fighting on the front lines may feel that they no longer have the support of society, Käihkö says.
– If a part of society continues to live quite normally, while some people die in battles to defend people who would like to forget the war, it forcibly creates a rift between people. This development was seen in the Donbas war that started in Ukraine in 2014.
However, Käihkö himself does not believe that the fighting will of the Ukrainians has decisively weakened and believes that Zelensky is also aware of its importance.
– Zelenskyi is certainly aware that the Ukrainians’ will to fight is a key factor in this war.