Chinese President Xi Jinping warned on Tuesday December 10 that a Sino-American trade war would produce “no winner”, while the customs offensive promised by Donald Trump is already encouraging companies to inflate their stocks, boosting for the moment exports of the Asian giant.
Beijing is preparing for the Republican tycoon’s return to the White House in January. His first term had already been marked by a commercial standoff with China, accused of intellectual property theft and other “unfair” practices. Donald Trump promises to impose even higher customs duties on Chinese imports after his inauguration, at the risk of seizing up a crucial engine of growth in the world’s second largest economy, already weighed down by a persistent real estate crisis and sluggish consumption.
“No winner”
“Customs wars, trade wars and technology wars go against historical trends and economic rules, and there will be no winner,” Xi Jinping responded according to state television CCTV . He was speaking during a meeting with the heads of several multilateral financial institutions.
This statement from the Chinese president comes shortly after the publication of official data showing continued growth in Chinese exports in November. Overseas sales of products and services rose 6.7% year-on-year, according to dollar figures released by Chinese Customs – still a solid increase, although lower than the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg ( + 8.7%), and well below October’s performance (+ 12.7%).
Resistance can be explained in part by the stockpiling of foreign companies facing the prospect of an upcoming increase in American customs taxes. This anticipation “presages an acceleration in exports in the months to come”, underlines Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics.
Foreign trade has also constituted this year one of the few positive points for the Chinese economy, under pressure: it is “one of the main reasons why China should achieve its growth objective of around 5 %,” says Lynn Song, economist at ING. Xi Jinping said on Tuesday that his country remained “completely confident” in its ability to achieve its growth target for 2024.
Beijing wants to strengthen its recovery
The expected intensification of trade tensions with Washington worries Beijing, which this week received the leaders of main multilateral economic organizations. The global economy faces growing challenges due to a trend toward “deglobalization,” Premier Li Qiang warned on Monday. Keen to take the lead, the Chinese government unveiled a series of measures in November to stimulate trade, including the extension of export credit insurance and the facilitation of cross-border trade settlements. Since Donald Trump’s first term, however, China has reduced the share of its exports to the United States, potentially reducing the impact of a new trade standoff. “Demand from other destinations is expected to remain relatively stable and could help offset some of the impact,” confirms Lynn Song.
However, the Asian giant recorded a new unexpected decline in its imports in November, a barometer of still lackluster domestic consumption. Chinese imports fell by 3.9% year-on-year, expressed in dollars, according to Customs data published on Tuesday, accentuating the decline observed in October (-2.3%) and reversing the slight rebound of 0.9%. expected by the markets.
Faced with this gloomy situation, which a customs war could further darken, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party, the key organ of power, opened the way on Monday to “an appropriate easing of monetary policy” and promised “a pro budgetary policy”. -active”. “Import volumes are expected to recover in the short term thanks to an acceleration in public spending which will stimulate demand for industrial raw materials,” estimates Zichun Huang.
The Central Conference on Economic Work, a crucial meeting which Beijing is preparing to kick off, could lay the groundwork for new recovery measures this week. Signals eagerly awaited by economic circles – disappointed in recent months by the absence of direct financial support for households to encourage them to consume. Despite everything, “it is likely that this conference will make people disappointed, because few concrete measures should be announced”, tempered Teeuwe Mevissen, economist at Rabobank, to AFP.