A meeting between the two “best friends”, words from the two main parties to describe each other. Vladimir Putin is traveling to China this Thursday, May 16 and Friday for his first state visit since his re-election as head of Russia, with the hope of obtaining clearer support from Xi Jinping for his war in Ukraine.
This meeting will be the fourth between the two presidents since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A few days before the launch of the military operation, Moscow and Beijing affirmed that their friendship was “limitless”. Since then, their diplomatic and commercial relationship has been further strengthened, reinforcing the idea of Russia’s increased dependence on China, which has become a crucial economic partner in the face of the avalanche of Western sanctions imposed in response to its military offensive. .
“President Xi Jinping will exchange views with President Putin on bilateral relations, cooperation in various fields and international and regional issues of common concern,” said a spokesperson for Chinese diplomacy, Wang Wenbin, during a regular press briefing. For its part, the Kremlin indicated that the two presidents would discuss their “comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation” and “define (have) the key areas of development of Russian-Chinese cooperation, while also exchanging their points of view on international and regional issues.
Constantly increasing trade
In recent months, Beijing has repeatedly brushed aside Western criticism of its ties with Moscow, while benefiting from cut-price imports of gas and oil from its neighbor. Sino-Russian trade has exploded since the invasion of Ukraine and reached a record level in 2023, reaching $240 billion according to Chinese Customs. A meteoric rise, while trade had exceeded $100 billion for the first time in 2018, and plateaued around this level before the start of the war in Ukraine.
“I think that economic relations between Russia and China have great prospects,” declared Vladimir Putin himself in an interview with the Chinese state media Xinhua, assuring that he wanted to develop “closer cooperation in industry and high technology, outer space and peaceful atom, artificial intelligence, renewable energy and other innovative sectors.”
However, this trade arrangement also faces growing challenges, and China does not necessarily seem committed to growing trade further. Chinese exports to its Russian neighbor even fell in March and April this year, the fault of Washington’s threats of sanctions against financial institutions supporting the Russian war effort. Frightened by these pressures, which would deal a new blow to an already fragile Chinese economy, the Asian giant’s banks have recently become more cautious in their transactions with Russia, suspending or reducing them.
China’s ambiguous position on Ukraine
These threats to the Chinese economy do not prevent Vladimir Putin from having high hopes from this meeting with Xi Jinping. The Russian president praised “the approach adopted by China to resolve the crisis in Ukraine”, in an interview published this Wednesday by the Chinese state media Xinhua and on the Kremlin website. “Beijing is well aware of the root causes of the crisis and its global geopolitical importance,” continued the Russian president, who refers in particular to a 12-point document published by China in February 2023 to explain its position on the conflict.
“The ideas and proposals contained in the document show the sincere desire of our Chinese friends to help stabilize the situation,” Vladimir Putin stressed. In this document, China calls for respect for the territorial integrity of all countries (implying Ukraine included) but also urges consideration of Russia’s security concerns.
An ambiguous position of China, illustrated by Xi Jinping’s visit to Paris last week to meet Emmanuel Macron. If the French president welcomed the Chinese “commitments” to “refrain from selling any weapons” and “any aid to Moscow”, the Chinese leader’s words were intended to be much less definitive. “We oppose the use of the Ukrainian crisis to blame others, smear a third country and trigger a new Cold War,” declared Xi Jinping in a clear reference to Western criticism, which blames companies Chinese forces to participate in the Russian war effort. “China is neither at the origin of the crisis nor a party to it. However, we do not stand by indifferently to the misfortune of others. We have played a positive role in the search for peace from the beginning,” had he assured. Peace, but under what conditions? If Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are such “good friends” that they claim to be, it is difficult to perceive China as an ally for Western countries.