You will also be interested
[EN VIDÉO] How high will the world’s population grow? In 1950, the world population was estimated at 2.6 billion people. Today we are 7.7 billion people and this is expected to increase by another 2 billion over the next 30 years.
To go from 500 million to 1 billion inhabitants on Earth, it took humanity some 300 years. To further double its population then, only 127 years were needed. In 1927, there were indeed 2 billion people on our planet. And it only took 47 years for the number of inhabitants on Earth to double again. In 1974, we were 4 million human beings. A growth “exponential”.
However, this seems to be stalling somewhat. We were 7,900,000 in June 2022. And the world population should not reach 8 billion before 2023. It will therefore have taken at least 49 years this time to further double the number of inhabitants on Earth. Projections even announce that the figure should stabilize around 10 to 12 billion by 2100. Or even go down to 7 billion.
Indeed, in an environment with unlimited resources, the population would continue to grow ad infinitum. But this is not the case with our Earth. Humanity should therefore soon be overtaken by a certain biological reality. A kind of limit to the world population imposed by the resources of our Planet. Population growth that stops when premature deaths from starvation or disease – the result of overconsumption and resource pollution – come to balance the birth rate.
A limit imposed by the cultivable area
According to the Worldwatch Institute (United States), our planet has approximately 1.9 hectares of land to offer each of its inhabitants for food, clothing, lodges and heats itself and that it eliminates its waste. The trouble is that today, the average area used per inhabitant is already rather around 2.3 hectares. And even nearly 10 hectares for an average American.
The inexorable advance of ” overshoot day» confirms it. In 1970, the day from which we begin to draw more renewable resources than our good old Earth is capable of supplying us fell on December 29. In 2022, it is announced for… July 28!
A sociobiologist from Harvard University (United States) argues that to ensure food for as many people as possible on Earth, we should all become vegetarians . Because then, the cultivated cereals would be intended for our food and no longer for that of livestock. In this case, he estimates that the 1.4 billion hectares of arable landcould feed about 10 billion people. No more. And so even less, even, as long as we stay omnivores .
The water problem
The other problem is that of water. It is essential for life. Without water supply, a human cannot survive more than two or three days. Biologically, an average adult who lives in a temperate region and provides no effort physicalparticular needs 2.5 liters of water per day , coming partly from his food and partly from the beverages he drinks. However, the average consumption of a Frenchman is without common measure. About 150 liters per day. And that’s almost nothing compared to that of an average American who climbs to… 4,000 liters per day. Much of this water is used to generate electricity or for irrigation.
On Earth, there are more than 1,350 million cubic kilometers of water. But the vast majority are found in the oceans. Finally, experts estimate that only about 0.5% of this water corresponds to a pure wateravailable. Understand water, not stored, in glaciers or soils, for example. That’s something like 6.75 million cubic kilometers of water. Or 6.750 billion liters of water.
That may seem like a lot, but based on the average consumption of an American… And already 2 billion humans don’t have easy access to a potable water. Even in industrialized countries, water is sometimes contaminated by agents pathogens of themetalsheavy or otherwise. It’s not just the quantity that counts. Quality is important too.
Very varied estimates
Beyond the agricultural surface and the available water, there are also, among other things, the questions of the nitrogen from phosphorus and concentrations incarbonin our atmosphere.
Many factors that probably explain why the estimates of scientists who have tried to calculate how much our Earth can support human beings vary so much. From 500 million to more than 1,000 billion! Especially since some are even still discussing the most appropriate way to calculate the maximum carrying capacity of our Planet. Most studies finally manage to agree on a figure of around 8 billion. And here we are…
Interested in what you just read?