Rising temperatures could result in droughts, fires and insect infestations in the world’s forests. Now, for the first time ever, an international research team has analyzed the risk factors of forests.
By compiling information from various sources such as articles, satellite images and climate and vegetation models, the researchers have succeeded in mapping the forests’ future climate risks and compiled maps with so-called hotspots, i.e. areas that will be especially vulnerable in the next 80 years.
Uncertain future
“Forests in the southern boreal belt in the northern hemisphere, for example Canada and large parts of Russia, will live dangerously. But also forests in tropical Africa and parts of the Amazon,” says Thomas Pugh, natural geography researcher at Lund University, which is one of the universities behind the new study, in a press release.
In other parts of the world, the future is more uncertain as different approaches to assessing climate risks give different answers.
No guarantee
The researchers expect that the world’s forests will increasingly experience a climate they are not used to. Although it is believed that most forests will adapt to climate change, there is no guarantee that the forests of the future will store as much carbon dioxide or offer the same levels of biodiversity as today.
“The forests will not save us from climate change. It is up to us to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. But it is important that we continue to research how the forests of the future, and by extension we humans, will be affected by a changing climate,” says Thomas Pugh.
The study has been published in the scientific journal Science.